In Ukraine, vehicle production declined 39.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first 11 months of the year, to 44,062 units. During this period, passenger car production declined 39.8% y-o-y, to 40,118 units, and commercial vehicle (CV) production dropped 38% y-o-y, to 1,831 units. On the back of output volumes over the year, and our view that many European markets, which are the country's leading trade partners, are bottoming out somewhat, we forecast total vehicle production to fall 39.6% in 2013. This comes from an expected drop of 40% in the passenger car market, and a 35% decline in the CV segment.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 8

Political 9

Economic 10

Business Environment 11

Industry Forecast 12

Production And Sales 12

      Production 12

      Table: Ukraine Vehicle Production, 2011-2017 12

      Sales 14

      Table: Ukraine Vehicle Sales, 2011-2017 14

Passenger Vehicles 15

      Table: Passenger Car Sales and Production - Data And Forecasts 15

      Key Players 17

      Table: Passenger Car Production By Brand 17

      Table: Passenger Car Sales By Brand 18

Commercial Vehicles 19

      Production 19

      Table: Commercial Vehicle Production Forecasts 19

      Table: Commercial Vehicle Production By Brand 20

      Sales 20

      Table: Commercial Vehicle Sales Forecasts 20

      Table: Commercial Vehicle Sales By Brand 21

Macroeconomic Forecasts 23

Economic Analysis 23

Real GDP By Expenditure Breakdown 24

Risks To Outlook 27

      Table: Ukraine - Economic Activity 27

Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 28

Europe Risk/Reward Ratings 28

      Table: Europe Risk/Reward Ratings 32

Competitive Landscape 33

Company Profile 35

Company Monitor 35

      Table: Opel's Production Sites 37

AvtoKrAZ 38

AvtoZAZ 40

Regional Overview 42

Europe Regional Overview 42

Global Industry Overview 45

Demographic Forecast 49

      Table: Ukraine's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 50

      Table: Ukraine's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 51

      Table: Ukraine's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 52

      Table: Ukraine's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 52

Methodology 53

Industry Forecasts 53

Sector-Specific Methodology 54

Sources 54

Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 55

      Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators 56

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