After a strong year for the UK steel industry in 2013, we are forecasting a muted recovery going forward. In line with its European counterparts, the UK metals industry has been rocked by low profitability that has led to capacity reductions and disinvestment. However, the worst is probably over for the UK, as slightly stronger domestic demand and recent investment from international firms such as Sahaviriya Steel Industries and Tata Steel should arrest the decline in sector fortunes.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Metals SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Steel: Recent Investment To Arrest Slowdown 11

      Table: Steel Production & Consumption (000 tonnes, Unless Stated Otherwise) (United Kingdom 2009-2018) 13

      Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (000 tonnes, Unless Stated Otherwise) (United Kingdom 2003-2012) 14

Commodities Forecast 15

Steel Price Forecast 15

      Table: BMI Steel Forecast 15

      Short-Term Outlook 15

      Core View 16

      Global Steel Glut To Persist 16

      Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term 17

      Consumption: Growth Decelerating 19

      Excessive Chinese Exports 20

      Growing Arbitrage Between East & West 21

      Risks To Price Outlook 21

      Table: Steel Data & Forecasts 22

      Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave) 22

Monthly Metals Update 23

      Iron Ore: Chinese Stimulus Not A Game Changer 24

      Steel: Gradual Rationalisation Insufficient To Boost Prices 26

      Aluminium: Recent Rally Unlikely To Persist Into H214 27

      Copper: Bearish Forecast Appears Well Placed 28

      Lead: Picking Up Autos Sector Tailwinds 29

      Nickel: Recent Rise To Fall Back In H214 30

      Zinc: Potential Test Of Resistance In Coming Weeks 32

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 34

Competitive Landscape 35

      Table: Largest European Listed Metals Producers 36

Company Profile 38

Rio Tinto 38

      Company Overview 40

      Company Strategy 41

      Latest Financial Results 42

      Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data 43

Tata Steel Limited 44

      Table: Tata Steel - Key Financial Data 47

Methodology 48

Cross Checks 48

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