After a strong year for the UK steel industry in 2013, we are forecasting a muted recovery going forward. In line with its European counterparts, the UK metals industry has been rocked by low profitability that has led to capacity reductions and disinvestment. However, the worst is probably over for the UK, as slightly stronger domestic demand and recent investment from international firms such as Sahaviriya Steel Industries and Tata Steel should arrest the decline in sector fortunes.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Metals SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Steel: Recent Investment To Arrest Slowdown 11

      Table: UK - Steel Production And Consumption, 2009-2018 ('000 tonnes) 14

      Table: UK - Steel Production, 2003-2012 ('000 tonnes, unless otherwise stated) 15

Commodities Forecast 16

Monthly Metals Update 16

      Steel: Locked In Secular Downtrend 18

      Aluminium: US$1,800/tonne To Provide Strong Support 18

      Copper: Bearish View In Place Despite Some Recovery 19

      Nickel: Despite Recent Gains, Downside Risks Dominate 21

      Zinc: Channelling Support 23

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI forecasts 25

      Table: BMI Commodities Strategy 25

Steel Price Forecast 26

      Table: BMI Steel Forecast 26

      Short-Term Outlook 26

      Core View 26

      Global Steel Glut To Persist 27

      Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term 27

      Consumption: Growth Decelerating 29

      Excessive Chinese Exports 30

      Growing Arbitrage Between East & West 31

      Risks To Price Outlook 31

      Table: Steel Data & Forecasts 32

      Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave) 32

Competitive Landscape 34

      Table: Largest European Listed Metals Producers 35

Company Profile 37

Tata Steel Limited 37

      Recent Financial Results 39

      Table: Tata Steel - Key Financial Data 40

Rio Tinto 41

      Company Overview 43

      Company Strategy 44

      Latest Financial Results 45

      Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data 46

Methodology 47

Cross Checks 47

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