We see continued growth in Brazil's mining sector, though with the boom years gone and Chinese demand growth slowing, average growth rates will be more modest than in prior years. The country's large untapped reserves and relatively small mining sector relative to the larger Brazilian economy still leaves plenty of potential, and should enable production gains for both domestic and foreign producers. Iron ore will drive sector investment, but we expect continued interest in both base metals and gold.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Bauxite: Growth Despite Market Weakness 11

      Foreign Firms Dominate Sector 11

      Risks To Outlook 12

      Table: Brazil - Bauxite Production & Growth Forecasts 14

Gold: Brazil To See Small Gains 14

      Table: Select Greenfield Gold Projects 14

      Negative Price Outlook To Constrain Investment Incentives 15

      Table: Brazil - Gold Production 16

Iron Ore: Growth To Continue Despite Weakening Chinese Demand 17

      Brazilian Advantages To Ensure Production Gains 17

      China Slowdown Underpins Modest Forecast Period 18

      Risks To Outlook 21

      Table: Brazil - Iron Ore Production 22

Nickel: Growth To Continue 23

      Recent Supply Cuts To Give Way To Long-Term Growth 23

      Table: Brazil - Key Nickel Projects 24

      Risks To Outlook 25

      Table: Brazil - Nickel Production 26

      Tin: Brazil To Capture Larger Share Of Market 26

      Table: Brazil - Tin Production Forecasts ('000 tonnes) 28

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 29

Americas - Q1 2014 29

      Table: Americas - Mining Risk/Reward Ratings 29

      Local Opposition Remains Potent 30

      Royalty Threat 30

      Country Highlights 31

      Chile: Despite Rating, Potential Vulnerabilities 31

      Canada: Solid Developed World Destination 32

      United States: Slow Growing Giant 32

      Peru: Strong Prospects But Protests Maintain Pressure 33

      Colombia: Coal Holds Promise 33

      Brazil: Complexities Abound 34

      Mexico: Domestic Fundamentals Favourable, For Now 34

      Argentina: Clear Potential Amid High Risks 35

      Central America: Frontier Market Opportunities? 35

Market Overview 36

Industry Focus Remains On Iron Ore 37

Base Metals & Gold To See Further Development 39

Risks To Outlook 41

      Table: Brazil - Mining Industry Value And Production 41

Regulatory Development 42

Recent Developments 42

Strong Mining Assets, But Mixed Regulatory Environment 42

Brazilian Royalties Potentially Ill-Timed 42

Licensing And Permitting Challenges Remain 43

Tax Regime 43

Corruption Remains Major Concern 44

      Table: Brazil - Political Overview 44

      Table: Regional Regulatory Ratings 45

Commodities Forecast 47

Commodity Strategy 47

      Steel: Locked In Secular Downtrend 49

      Aluminium: US$1,800/tonne To Provide Strong Support 49

      Copper: Bearish View In Place Despite Some Recovery 50

      Nickel: Despite Recent Gains, Downside Risks Dominate 52

      Zinc: Channelling Support 54

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI forecasts 55

      Table: BMI Commodities Strategy 56

Competitive Landscape 57

      Table: Financial Data For Key Firms Listed In Brazil 57

Both Domestic & Foreign Active Elsewhere 58

Weak Gold Prices May Limit Potential 58

Company Profile 59

Alcoa - Q1 2014 59

      Recent Financial Data 62

      Table: Alcoa - Key Financial Data 62

Anglo American - Q1 2014 64

      Company Strategy 66

      Table: Anglo American - Financial Data 68

Vale - Q1 2014 69

      Company Overview 71

      Company Strategy 72

      Recent Financial News 73

      Company Details 74

      Table: Vale - Key Financial Data 75

Regional Overview 76

Americas Overview 76

      1. Slowdown To Resume After Recent Uptick 76

      2. Capex Outlook Remains Mixed 77

      3. US & Canada To Lag Southern Peers 78

      4. Growing, Though Still Limited Opportunity In Central America 80

      Table: Key Central America And Caribbean Mining Projects 81

      5. Growth In US Coal Exports Unlikely To Stem Industry Woes 82

      6. Political Risks Remain At Forefront 83

Global Industry Overview 85

Global Overview 85

      Downturn To Continue Into 2014 85

      1. China Slowdown To Drive Mining Moderation 85

      2. Frontier Mining Increasingly Challenging 86

      3. Mining Services Firms Facing Tough Outlook 88

      But Opportunities Still Exist 90

      1. Asian Outward Investment Continues 90

      2. Private Equity Entering The Mix 92

      3. Global Thermal Coal Demand Still Growing 93

Methodology 96

Industry Forecast Methodology 96

Sources 97

Risk/Reward Rating Methodology 98

      Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators 99

      Table: Weighting Of Indicators 100

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