China continues to see rapid growth in aluminium exports. Exports of both semi fabricated products and continuously cast coil metal destined for remelt have seen rapid growth during 2014. Aluminium intensive finished goods exports have also grown rapidly, but some of this will be also end up being re-melted. There is currently a large incentive for Chinese rollers to export, due to high ingot premiums outside of China, VAT rebates, and the low SHFE price. Thus, vast quantities of metal (in various forms) will continue to leave China.

Executive summary i

Chapter 1 1-1

China 1-1

1. Developments in capacity and production forecasts 1-2

      1.1 Development of aluminium rolling projects 1-2

      1.2 Capacity forecast by province 1-9

      1.3 Production and operating rates 1-11

2. Consumption 1-12

      2.1 The macroeconomic environment 1-12

      2.2 End-use Demand 1-12

3. China’s net trade position 1-17

Chapter 2 2-1

Asia ex. China 2-1

1. Developments in capacity 2-2

2. Capacity forecasts 2-3

3. Consumption 2-6

      3.1 The outlook for Japan 2-6

      3.2 The outlook for South Korea 2-8

      3.3 The outlook for India 2-10

      3.4 The outlook for the rest of Asia 2-11

      3.5 Middle East 2-14

      3.6 Australasia 2-16

4. Net trade, production and operating rates 2-17

Chapter 3 3-1

The Americas 3-1

1. Developments in capacity 3-2

2. Capacity forecasts 3-3

3. Consumption 3-6

      3.1 The outlook for the USA & Canada 3-6

      3.1.1 The current situation 3-6

      3.1.2 Sectoral demand prospects 3-11

      3.2 The outlook for Central and South America 3-27

4. Net trade, production and operating rates 3-31

      4.1 North America 3-31

      4.2 Central and South America 3-35

Chapter 4 4-1

Europe and Africa 4-1

1. Developments in capacity 4-2

2. Capacity forecasts 4-3

3. Consumption 4-7

      3.1 The outlook for Western Europe 4-7

      3.2 The outlook for Eastern Europe 4-19

      3.3 The outlook for Africa 4-22

4. Net trade, production and operating rates 4-25

Chapter 5 5-1

Prices, margins and net trade forecasts 5-1

1. LME price and ingot premium forecasts 5-3

      1.1 LME price forecasts 5-3

      1.2 SHFE price forecasts 5-5

      1.3 Premium forecasts 5-6

2. Rolled product prices outlook 5-10

      2.1 North America 5-11

      2.2 Europe 5-13

      2.3 China 5-15

      2.4 Japan 5-16

3. Rolled products trade and price arbitrage 5-18

Appendix A A-1

Industrial and economic outlook, 2014-2019 A-1

Appendix B B-1

World rolled products consumption by sector B-1

Appendix C C-1

Chinese and Japanese rolled products consumption C-1

Appendix D D-1

North America rolled products consumption D-1

Appendix E E-1

European rolled products consumption E-1

Appendix F F-1

Aluminium rolled products trade data and prices F-1

Appendix G G-1

Aluminium rolled products capacity changes G-1

Appendix H H-1

Aluminium mill capacity rankings by producer and country H-1

Appendix I I-1

Detailed ownership by equity of aluminium rolling mills, November 2014 I-1

Statistical review S-1

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