The Russian metals sector will post weak growth over the remainder of 2014 as cuts continue in the aluminium sector and weak prices plague the steel sector. In 2015 and beyond, growth will pick up as we see higher prices for aluminium and global demand growth for steel improves. Still, we expect companies' investment plans to focus on improving plant efficiency and reducing costs rather than building new plants or expanding production capacity. Despite only modest growth, Russia will remain one of the world's largest producers of base and industrial metals including nickel, steel and aluminium.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Steel: Growth To Pick Up In 2015 11

      High Relative Capacity Utilisation Rates 13

      Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Russia 2010-2018) 14

      Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Russia 2005-2012) 14

Aluminium: In The Midst Of Production Cuts 15

      Table: Aluminium Production & Consumption (Russia 2010-2018) 18

Nickel: Stagnant Outlook 19

      Table: Refined Nickel Production & Consumption (Russia 2010-2018) 21

Regulatory Development 22

Key Details 22

Political Risk Update 22

      Table: Political Overview 25

Commodities Forecast 26

Commodity Strategy 26

      Ferrous Metals: 26

      Steel: Prices To Remain Subdued 28

      Non-Ferrous Metals: 29

      Aluminium: Price Strength To Continue In Q314 29

      Copper: Further Decline By Year's End 30

      Lead: Constructive Price Outlook 31

      Nickel: Moderation To Continue 32

      Tin: Upside Ahead 33

      Zinc: Consolidation Before Multi-Year Gains 35

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 37

Commodities Forecast 37

      Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast 37

      Short-Term Outlook 37

      Core View 38

      Surplus Set To Slim 39

      Production: Reining In Growth 39

      Consumption: Deceleration Ahead 41

      No Respite From Chinese Exports Over Coming Months 43

      Arbitrage Set To Grow Between East And West 44

      Risks To Price Outlook 45

      Table: Steel Data & Forecasts 45

      Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, USD/tonne (average) 46

Competitive Landscape 47

      Table: Russia - Largest Listed Metals Producers - Financial Data 48

Company Profile 49

Severstal 49

      Table: Severstal - Key Financial Data 52

Norilsk Nickel 53

      Company Overview 54

      Company Strategy 55

      Table: Norilsk Nickel - Key Financial Data 57

RUSAL 58

      Latest Results 61

      Table: Rusal - Supply Chain Analysis 62

      Table: RUSAL - Key Financial Data 62

Methodology 64

Cross Checks 64

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