The Russian metals sector will face headwinds over coming quarters as European and US demand remains weak and global oversupply weighs on metal prices. We expect production of key metals to remain modest, with company investment plans focusing on improving plant efficiency and reducing costs rather than building new plants or expanding production capacity. Despite weak growth, Russia will remain one of the world's largest producers of base and industrial metals including nickel, steel and aluminium.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Metals SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Steel: Global Oversupply To Weigh On Growth 11

      Table: Russia - Steel Production ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 15

      Table: Russia - Steel Production & Trade ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 15

Aluminium: Growth Outlook Hindered By Oversupply 16

      Table: Russia - Primary Aluminium Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 19

Nickel: Weak Prices To Hinder Output Growth 20

      Table: Russia - Nickel Consumption & Production ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 23

Regulatory Development 24

Key Details 24

      Table: Political Overview 26

      Table: Europe: Mining Regulatory Outlook 27

Commodities Forecast 28

Commodity Strategy 28

      Steel: Locked In Secular Downtrend 30

      Aluminium: US$1,800/tonne To Provide Strong Support 30

      Copper: Bearish View In Place Despite Some Recovery 31

      Nickel: Despite Recent Gains, Downside Risks Dominate 33

      Zinc: Channelling Support 35

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI forecasts 36

      Table: BMI Commodities Strategy 37

      Commodities Forecast 38

      Table: BMI Steel Forecast 38

      Table: Steel Data And Forecasts, 2009-2017 46

Competitive Landscape 47

      Table: Russia - Largest Listed Metals Producers - Financial Data 48

Company Profile 50

Norilsk Nickel 50

      Overview 51

      Strategy 52

      Table: Norilsk Nickel - Financial Metrics 54

RUSAL 55

      Table: RUSAL - Key Financial Data 59

Severstal 60

      Table: Severstal - Financial Data 63

Methodology 64

Cross Checks 64

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