We maintain a modest though positive outlook for the US metals sector over our five-year forecast period. Our constructive US macroeconomic outlook underpins our view that metal production and consumption should see modest growth. However, we anticipate total production and consumption levels will remain below pre-crisis levels through 2018. For 2014, we expect the country's improving economic outlook, particularly in the construction, oil & gas, and automotive sectors, will drive the sector.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 10

Metals SWOT 10

Industry Forecast 12

Steel: Modest Outlook Ahead 12

      Capacity Utilisation Indicates Continued, Though Modest, Recovery 12

      Steel-Intensive Sectors To Boost Construction 13

      Cheap Imports Remain Risk 15

      Table: Steel Production & Consumption (000 tonnes, Unless Stated Otherwise) (United States 2010-2018) 16

Aluminium: Production And Consumption Trends To Diverge 16

      Consumption To Gain From Stronger Economic Growth 17

      Production To See Stagnant Growth 18

      Table: US - Aluminium Consumption, Production & Balance (kt) 19

Copper: Muted Recovery 19

      Housing & Manufacturing Bolster Demand 20

      Production To Consumption Growth 21

      Table: US - Refined Copper Production & Consumption (kt) 22

Zinc: Production And Consumption Growth Subdued 22

      Steel Production To Drive Zinc Consumption 23

      Total Production To Lag Consumption 24

      Table: US - Refined Zinc Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes) 25

Regulatory Development 26

Tax Regime 26

Minimal Corruption 27

      Table: US Political Overview 27

Commodities Forecast 29

Steel Price Forecast 29

      Table: BMI Steel Forecast 29

      Short-Term Outlook 29

      Core View 30

      Global Steel Glut To Persist 30

      Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term 31

      Consumption: Growth Decelerating 33

      Excessive Chinese Exports 34

      Growing Arbitrage Between East & West 35

      Risks To Price Outlook 35

      Table: Steel Data & Forecasts 36

      Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave) 36

Monthly Metals Update 37

      Iron Ore: Chinese Stimulus Not A Game Changer 38

      Steel: Gradual Rationalisation Insufficient To Boost Prices 40

      Aluminium: Recent Rally Unlikely To Persist Into H214 41

      Copper: Bearish Forecast Appears Well Placed 42

      Lead: Picking Up Autos Sector Tailwinds 43

      Nickel: Recent Rise To Fall Back In H214 44

      Zinc: Potential Test Of Resistance In Coming Weeks 46

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 48

Competitive Landscape 49

      Table: US - Financial Data For Key Listed Metals Firms, FY 2013 49

Steel Sector To Benefit From Improved Economic Fundamentals 50

Little Investment Expected Into Base Metals Capacity 50

Company Profile 52

Nucor 52

      Company Strategy 53

      Latest Financial Results 54

      Table: Nucor - Key Financial Data 54

Alcoa 56

      Recent Financial Data 59

      Table: Alcoa - Key Financial Data 60

ArcelorMittal 61

      Company Overview 63

      Company Strategy 63

      Latest Financial Results 65

      Company Details 65

      Financial Data 65

      Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data 65

Methodology 66

Cross Checks 66

冶金工业信息标准研究院