We see continued trouble on the horizon for South Africa's metals industry, which is increasingly beset by low output prices, rising energy costs, and further organized labour action. Metals consumption growth will rise faster than production growth, due to solid demand growth from the autos sector. Due to production weakness, we expect increased imports in the coming quarters, as investment in South African production facilities will be held back by the glut of metals, particularly steel, on the world market.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Metals SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Steel: Little Incentive To Invest 11

      Production Outlook Muted 12

      Table: South Africa - Major Steel Plants 14

      Consumption Fundamentals Appear Stronger 15

      Construction Looking More Positive, Though Problems Remain 16

      Table: South Africa - Steel Consumption & Production 18

      Table: South Africa - Steel Production & Trade Historical Data ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 18

Aluminium: Diminishing As An Export Hub 19

      Consumption Supported By Autos And Construction 19

      Production Hampered By Power Woes 19

      Upstream Supplies May Pose Challenge 20

      Exports Likely To Decline 21

      Table: South Africa - Primary Aluminium Production, Consumption & Balance ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 22

Nickel: Declining Platinum Output To Constrain Nickel 22

      Automotive Sector Remains Primary Demand Driver 23

      Production Fundamentals Lag Demand 24

      Table: South Africa - Refined Nickel Production, Consumption & Balance 25

Regulatory Development 26

Carbon Tax Delayed, Though Implementation Likely 26

Labour Market To Remain Volatile 26

Tax Regime 27

      Table: South Africa - Political Overview 28

Commodities Forecast 30

Commodity Strategy 30

      Iron Ore: Chinese Stimulus Not A Game Changer 30

      Steel: Gradual Rationalisation Insufficient To Boost Prices 32

      Aluminium: Recent Rally Unlikely To Persist Into H214 33

      Copper: Bearish Forecast Appears Well Placed 34

      Lead: Picking Up Autos Sector Tailwinds 35

      Nickel: Recent Rise To Fall Back In H214 36

      Zinc: Potential Test Of Resistance In Coming Weeks 38

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 39

Steel Price Forecast 40

      Table: BMI Steel Forecast 40

Short-Term Outlook 41

Core View 41

Global Steel Glut To Persist 42

Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term 42

Consumption: Growth Decelerating 44

Excessive Chinese Exports 46

Growing Arbitrage Between East & West 46

Risks To Price Outlook 47

      Table: Steel Data & Forecasts 48

      Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave) 48

Competitive Landscape 50

      Table: South Africa - Major Steel Production Facilities 50

      Table: South Africa - Select Listed Metals Producers 51

Company Profile 53

ArcelorMittal 53

      Company Overview 55

      Company Strategy 55

      Latest Financial Results 57

      Company Details 57

      Financial Data 57

      Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data 57

Methodology 58

Cross Checks 58

冶金工业信息标准研究院