We forecast modest growth Ukraine's mining sector output over our forecast period to 2018. Coal and iron ore will be the main drivers of volume growth. Nevertheless, Ukraine's mining industry value will stagnate over coming years as increases in coal and iron ore output will be counterbalanced by our forecast for a weakening of prices for these commodities.

BMI Industry View 7

      Table: Ukraine - Key Mines 7

SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 10

Iron Ore: Production Growth Amid Uncertainties 10

      Table: Iron Ore Production Forecast (Ukraine 2009-2018) 12

Coal: Solid Growth As Demand Rises 13

      Cheap Seaborne Imports Present Downside Risk 14

      Table: Coal Production Forecast (Ukraine 2009-2018) 15

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 16

Risk/Reward Ratings 16

      Kazakhstan On Top; Russia Not Far Behind 17

      Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings 18

      Germany & Ukraine: Key Changers On Last Quarter 18

      Weak Commodity Prices Weigh On Rewards Across The Board 19

Risk/Reward Ratings 19

      Rewards 19

      Industry Rewards 19

      Country Rewards 19

      Risks 20

      Industry Risks 20

      Country Risks 20

      Table: Ukraine: Mine Production Forecasts 21

Regulatory Development 22

Political Risk 23

Business Environment 23

Tax Regime 24

Corruption & Weak Institutions Threaten Investment 25

      Table: Political Overview 25

      Table: Europe: Mining Regulatory Outlook 26

Commodities Forecast 27

Monthly Metals Update 27

      Iron Ore: Chinese Stimulus Not A Game Changer 27

      Steel: Gradual Rationalisation Insufficient To Boost Prices 29

      Aluminium: Recent Rally Unlikely To Persist Into H214 30

      Copper: Bearish Forecast Appears Well Placed 31

      Lead: Picking Up Autos Sector Tailwinds 32

      Nickel: Recent Rise To Fall Back In H214 33

      Zinc: Potential Test Of Resistance In Coming Weeks 35

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 37

Thermal Coal Outlook 37

      Table: BMI Thermal Coal Forecast 37

      Table: Select Coal Contracts (US$/tonne) 45

      Table: Global - Coal Production Forecasts 45

Competitive Landscape 46

Company Profile 47

Ferrexpo Poltava Mining 47

      Table: Ferrexpo - Key Financial Data 49

Regional Overview 51

Europe Overview 51

      1. Coal Production Growth Mainly In The East, But Upside In Germany 51

      2. Iron Ore Mining To Come Under Threat 53

      3. More Stringent Regulation On The Horizon 55

      Table: Europe: Mining Regulatory Outlook 55

      4. Long-Term Promise For Rare Earths 56

      5. Public Opposition To Present Major Downside Risk 57

Global Industry Overview 58

Challenges 58

      Table: Mining - Select M&A Deals 62

Cause For Optimism 65

Methodology 72

Industry Forecast Methodology 72

Sources 73

Risk/Reward Rating Methodology 74

      Table: Weighting Of Indicators 76

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