Zimbabwe will achieve solid mining sector growth over our forecast period to 2018. Platinum production will be the main driver of growth, while growth in diamond output will be moderate and the country will remain a very small producer of gold. Weak global commodity prices and a deteriorating business environment will present downside risk to our forecasts.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 8

Industry Forecast 9

Diamonds: Huge Potential Fraught With Risks 9

      Table: Diamond Production (Zimbabwe 2010-2018) 11

Gold: Modest Growth Outlook 11

      Table: Key Gold Projects In Zimbabwe 12

      Table: Gold Production Forecast (Zimbabwe 2010-2018) 13

Platinum: Promising Growth Outlook 13

      Refinery Decision Finally Made 15

      Table: Zimbabwe - Major Platinum Projects 15

      Political Risks Weigh Heavily On Sector 15

      Table: Platinum Production (Zimbabwe 2010-2018) 16

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 17

Risk/Reward Ratings 17

      Botswana On Top 18

      Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Ratings 19

      South Africa: Still Ranking Highly 19

      Lower Gold Prices Reduce Rewards 20

Risk/Reward Ratings 22

      Rewards 22

      Industry Rewards 22

      Country Rewards 22

      Risks 23

      Industry Risks 23

      Country Risks 23

      Table: Zimbabwe - Main Mining Projects & Expansions 24

      Table: Mining Industry Forecasts (Zimbabwe 2010-2018) 24

Regulatory Development 26

Regulatory Underperformance 26

Beneficiation Drive 26

Structure, Law & Royalties 27

Corruption 27

Tax Regime 28

      Table: Zimbabwe - Political Overview 28

      Table: Africa: Mining Regulatory Outlook 29

Commodities Forecast 31

Commodity Strategy 31

      Iron Ore: Not Much Respite In Sight 31

      Steel: Production Rationalisation Too Slow To Provide Price Upside 33

      Aluminium: Further Price Rally Unlikely 34

      Lead: Ripe For A H214 Boost 35

      Copper: Consensus Moving Our Way 36

      Nickel: Price Surge To Abate Further 37

      Tin: In A Sweet Spot 38

      Zinc: Bullish Short-Term Picture 39

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 40

Competitive Landscape 42

      Table: Southern Africa - Largest Listed Mining Companies 43

Company Profile 45

African Consolidated Resources 45

Impala Platinum 47

      Table: Impala Platinum - Key Financial Data 50

      C1Regional Overview 52

Mining - Africa Overview 52

      Key Opportunities 52

      1. West Africa To Become Focal Point Of Growth 52

      2. Asian Investment Undeterred By Cooling Boom 54

      3. Coal Exports Set To Surge In The South 55

      Key Challenges 56

      1. Sluggish Infrastructure Improvements To Weigh On Growth 56

      2. Gold Price Weakness Portends Pain 57

      3. Divergent Regulatory Trends To Play Out 58

      Table: Africa - Key Mining Regulatory Developments 59

Global Industry Overview 61

Challenges 61

      Table: Mining - Select M&A Deals 65

Cause For Optimism 68

Methodology 75

Industry Forecast Methodology 75

Sources 76

Risk/Reward Rating Methodology 77

      Table: Weighting Of Indicators 79

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