Our overall tepid forecast for the refined metals sector in the US is based on a steady but less than robust economic recovery, and the continued long-term trend of declining consumption and metal intensity per unit of economic growth. In the short term, we expect that refiners and metal producers will continue bringing production back online as the country's economic outlook improves, particularly in the construction and automotive sectors. However, production and consumption will probably remain below pre-crisis levels for some time.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Metals SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Steel: Positive Trends To Reverse By Mid-Decade 11

      Capacity Utilisation Uptrend Continues 12

      Construction And Automotive Sectors To Support Consumption 13

      Table: US - Steel Production, Consumption And Balance 15

Aluminium: Production And Consumption Trends To Diverge 15

      Economic Recovery To Boost Consumption 15

      Production Capacity Remains Under Pressure 16

      Table: US - Aluminium Consumption, Production And Balance (kt) 18

Copper: Muted Recovery 18

      Housing Recovery To Boost Consumption 19

      Economic Growth To Bring Production Increases 20

      Table: US - Refined Copper Production And Consumption (kt) 22

Zinc: Production And Consumption Growth Subdued 22

      Small Increase In Consumption Growth 22

      Production Growth To Remain Muted 23

      Reliance On Imports To Continue 24

      Table: US - Refined Zinc Production And Consumption ('000 tonnes) 25

Regulatory Development 26

Tax Regime 26

Minimal Corruption 27

      Table: US Political Overview 27

Commodities Forecast 29

Iron Ore: Rally To Fade In Q413 30

Steel: Supply Glut To Endure 31

Aluminium: Surge Gives Way 32

Copper: Weak Outlook 33

Lead: Short-Term Weakness 34

Nickel: Still The Laggard 35

Zinc: Still A Surplus Market 38

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 39

      Table: Global Commodities Strategy 40

Commodities Forecast 40

      Table: BMI Steel Forecast 40

      Table: Steel Forecast 48

Competitive Landscape 49

      Table: US - Financial Data For Key Listed Metals Firms, FY 2012 49

Steel Sector Opportunities 50

Base Metals Remain Consolidated 51

Company Profile 52

Alcoa - Q1 2014 52

      Recent Financial Data 55

      Table: Alcoa - Key Financial Data 55

Nucor 57

      Company Strategy 58

      Recent Financial Results 59

      Table: Nucor - Key Financial Data 59

ArcelorMittal 61

      Company Strategy 64

      Company Details 65

      Financial Data 66

      Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data 66

Methodology 67

Cross Checks 67

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