Despite relatively weak growth to be expected over coming months, the medium-term outlook for Turkey's metals sector remains promising due to strong demand from the domestic construction and autos sectors. Near-term headwinds are likely to include currency weakness making imports of materials more expensive and weak global steel prices squeezing steel-makers' margins. An uptick in political risk in Turkey also presents a key downside risk.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Metals SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Steel: Near-Term Headwinds For Sector 11

      Consumption 12

      Production 13

      Table: Turkey - Steel Production & Consumption (kt) 16

      Table: Turkey - Steel Industry Historical Data (kt) 16

Regulatory Development 17

Political Risk Heightened 17

Anti-Corruption Drive Paying Off 17

Tax Regime 18

      Table: Political Overview 18

Commodities Forecast 20

Steel Price Forecast 20

      Table: BMI Steel Forecast 20

      Short-Term Outlook 20

      Core View 21

      Global Steel Glut To Persist 21

      Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term 22

      Consumption: Growth Decelerating 24

      Excessive Chinese Exports 25

      Growing Arbitrage Between East & West 26

      Risks To Price Outlook 26

      Table: Steel Data & Forecasts 27

      Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave) 27

Commodity Strategy 28

      Iron Ore: Chinese Stimulus Not A Game Changer 29

      Steel: Gradual Rationalisation Insufficient To Boost Prices 31

      Aluminium: Recent Rally Unlikely To Persist Into H214 32

      Copper: Bearish Forecast Appears Well Placed 33

      Lead: Picking Up Autos Sector Tailwinds 34

      Nickel: Recent Rise To Fall Back In H214 35

      Zinc: Potential Test Of Resistance In Coming Weeks 37

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 39

Competitive Landscape 40

      Table: Turkey - Steel Mills 40

      Table: Turkey - Largest Listed Metal Producers, Key Financial Metrics 41

Company Profile 42

Erdemir 42

      Company Strategy 44

      Table: Erdemir - Financial Data 44

Kardemir 46

      Company Strategy 47

      Table: Kardemir - Financial Data 48

Methodology 49

Cross Checks 49

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