Zambia's mining sector is set to continue on a positive trajectory over our forecast period to 2018. Copper is the mainstay of the mining sector, and we expect solid growth in output as the country's main producers forge ahead with expansion plans. Growing coal production will contribute to mining sector growth over coming years, as strong domestic demand for the fuel incentivises increased mine output.

BMI Industry View 7

Downside Risks Lurk 7

SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Copper: New Projects & Expansions To Come Online 11

      Risks To Outlook 12

      Table: Zambia: Major New Copper Projects 14

      Table: Copper Production Forecast (Zambia 2010-2018) 14

Coal: Solid Growth Over Forecast Period 14

      Table: Zambia - Coal Projects 16

      Potential Pitfalls Ahead 17

      Table: Coal Production Forecast (Zambia 2010-2018) 17

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 18

Risk/Reward Ratings 18

      Botswana On Top 19

      Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Ratings 20

      South Africa: Still Ranking Highly 20

      Lower Gold Prices Reduce Rewards 21

Risk/Reward Ratings 23

      Rewards 23

      Industry Rewards 23

      Country Rewards 23

      Table: Zambia - Major Mining Projects & Expansions 23

      Risks 24

      Industry Risks 24

      Country Risks 24

      Table: Mining Industry Forecasts (Zambia 2010-2018) 24

Regulatory Development 25

      Table: Zambia - Political Overview 27

      Table: Africa - Regulatory Outlook 27

Commodities Forecast 29

Commodity Strategy 29

      Iron Ore: Not Much Respite In Sight 29

      Steel: Production Rationalisation Too Slow To Provide Price Upside 31

      Aluminium: Further Price Rally Unlikely 32

      Lead: Ripe For A H214 Boost 33

      Copper: Consensus Moving Our Way 34

      Nickel: Price Surge To Abate Further 35

      Tin: In A Sweet Spot 36

      Zinc: Bullish Short-Term Picture 37

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 38

Competitive Landscape 40

Some Diversification 40

Major Players To Remain Dominant 40

      Table: Zambia Key Players - Comparative Valuation Metrics 41

Company Profile 42

First Quantum 42

      Latest Financial Results 45

      Table: First Quantum: Key Financial Data 46

Vedanta Resources 47

      Table: Vedanta Resources - Key Financial Data 51

Regional Overview 52

Mining - Africa Overview 52

      Key Opportunities 52

      1. West Africa To Become Focal Point Of Growth 52

      2. Asian Investment Undeterred By Cooling Boom 54

      3. Coal Exports Set To Surge In The South 55

      Key Challenges 56

      1. Sluggish Infrastructure Improvements To Weigh On Growth 56

      2. Gold Price Weakness Portends Pain 57

      3. Divergent Regulatory Trends To Play Out 58

      Table: Africa - Key Mining Regulatory Developments 59

Global Industry Overview 61

Challenges 61

      Table: Mining - Select M&A Deals 65

Cause For Optimism 68

Methodology 75

Industry Forecast Methodology 75

Sources 76

Risk/Reward Rating Methodology 77

      Table: Weighting Of Indicators 79

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