Despite relatively weak growth to be expected over coming months, the medium-term outlook for Turkey's metals sector remains promising due to strong demand from the domestic construction and autos sectors. Near-term headwinds are likely to include currency weakness making imports of materials more expensive and weak global steel prices squeezing steel-makers' margins. An uptick in political risk in Turkey also presents a key downside risk.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Metals SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Steel: Near-Term Headwinds, Long-Term Growth 11

      Consumption 12

      Production 14

      Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Turkey 2010-2018) 16

      Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Turkey 2005-2012) 16

Regulatory Development 17

Political Risk Heightened 17

Anti-Corruption Drive Paying Off 17

Tax Regime 18

      Table: Political Overview 18

Commodities Forecast 20

      Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast 20

Short-Term Outlook 20

Core View 21

Surplus Set To Slim 21

Production: Reining In Growth 22

Consumption: Deceleration Ahead 24

No Respite From Chinese Exports Over Coming Months 26

Arbitrage Set To Grow Between East And West 26

Risks To Price Outlook 27

      Table: Steel Data & Forecasts 28

      Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, USD/tonne (average) 29

Commodity Strategy 30

      Ferrous Metals: 31

      Iron Ore: Bounce Won't Last, Weakness In 2015 31

      Steel: Long Road To Price Recovery 32

      Non-Ferrous Metals: 33

      Aluminium: Elevated Prices In Coming Weeks 33

      Copper: Strength To Turn To Weakness By Q414 34

      Lead: Price Bounce Underway 35

      Nickel: Prices To Cool In Coming Months 36

      Tin: Market Tightness To Drive Prices Higher 37

      Zinc: Prices To Moderate By Q414 38

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 40

Competitive Landscape 41

      Table: Turkey - Steel Mills 41

      Table: Turkey - Largest Listed Metal Producers, Key Financial Metrics 42

Company Profile 43

Erdemir 43

      Company Strategy 45

      Table: Erdemir - Financial Data 45

Kardemir 47

      Company Strategy 48

      Table: Kardemir - Financial Data 49

Methodology 50

Cross Checks 50

冶金工业信息标准研究院