Refined metal production and consumption in Brazil will see accelerating growth in the years ahead on the back of expansion in Brazil's automotive, construction, and infrastructure sectors. However, the coming quarters will remain challenging owing to weak economic growth marked by subdued private consumption and fixed-asset investment.

BMI Industry View 7

Stronger Sector Performance In Latter Half Of Decade 7

SWOT 9

Metals SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Steel: Consumption And Production To Grow At Moderate Pace 11

      Consumption Facing Multi-Quarter Weakness 11

      Production To Exceed Domestic Demand 13

      Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Brazil 2010-2018) 14

      Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Brazil 2005-2012) 14

Aluminium: Production To Face Multi-Quarter Headwinds 16

      Electricity Prices To Reduce Production 16

      Consumption Growth To Outpace Production 18

      Table: Aluminium Production & Consumption (Brazil 2010-2018) 19

Copper: Stronger Growth In Years Ahead 20

      Consumption To Outpace Production Capacity 21

      Table: Refined Copper Production, Consumption & Balance (Brazil 2010-2018) 21

Regulatory Development 22

Tax Regime 22

Corruption To Persist 23

      Table: Brazil - Political Overview 23

Commodities Forecast 25

Commodity Strategy 25

      Ferrous Metals: 25

      Non-Ferrous Metals: 29

      Aluminium: Prices To Remain Elevated Following Recent Dip 29

      Copper: Chinese Weakness To Create Further Headwinds 30

      Nickel: No Sustained Rally Ahead 32

      Zinc: Subdued Short-Term Outlook Before Multi-Year Gains 35

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 36

Steel: Prices To Head Higher From 2016 37

      Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast 37

      Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months) 37

      Long-Term Outlook 38

      Production: Chinese Rationalisation Measures To Bite 39

      Consumption: Slowing Demand Growth On The Horizon 40

      Burgeoning Chinese Exports Will Not Last 41

      Eurozone Growth Downgrade Highlights Long Road To Recovery 42

      Risks To Price Forecast 42

      Table: Steel Data & Forecasts 43

Competitive Landscape 44

      Table: Financial Data For Key Metals Firms Listed In Brazil 44

Energy Costs To Prove Problematic 44

Company Profile 46

Gerdau 46

      Latest Financial Results 47

      Table: Gerdau - Key Financial Data 48

Cia Siderúrgica Nacional 49

      Latest Financial Results 51

      Table: CSN - Key Financial Data 51

Vale 52

      Company Overview 54

      Company Strategy 55

      Latest Results 56

      Table: Vale - Supply Chain Analysis 57

      Table: Vale - Key Financial Data 57

      Company Details 58

Methodology 59

Cross Checks 59

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