We maintain a modest outlook on the US metals sector throughout 2018. Our forecast for an improving US macroeconomic outlook underpins our view that metal production and consumption should see growth, though long-term declines in metal intensity lead us to believe any growth will be minimal. In the short term, we expect that refiners and metal producers will continue bringing production back online as the country's economic outlook improves, particularly in the construction, oil & gas, and automotive sectors. However, production and consumption will probably remain below pre-crisis levels for some time.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Metals SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Steel: Positive Trends To Reverse By Mid-Decade 11

      Capacity Utilisation Rates Signal Recovery 12

      Consumption To Be Boosted By Construction And Automotive Sectors 13

      Table: US - Steel Production, Consumption And Balance 15

Aluminium: Production And Consumption Trends To Diverge 15

      Consumption To Be Bolstered By Rising Economic Fortunes 15

      Production Gains Minimal In Years Ahead 16

      Table: US - Aluminium Consumption, Production And Balance (kt) 18

Copper: Muted Recovery 18

      Housing Recovery Underpins Consumption 19

      Production To See Slight Gains On Back Of Economic Recovery 20

      Table: US - Refined Copper Production And Consumption (kt) 21

Zinc: Production And Consumption Growth Subdued 22

      Consumption Dependent On Steel Industry 22

      Production Growth To Lag Consumption 23

      Table: US - Refined Zinc Production And Consumption ('000 tonnes) 25

Regulatory Development 26

Tax Regime 26

Minimal Corruption 27

      Table: US Political Overview 27

Commodities Forecast 29

Steel Price Forecast 29

      Table: BMI Steel Forecast 29

      Short-Term Outlook 29

      Core View 29

      Global Steel Glut To Persist 30

      Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term 30

      Consumption: Growth Decelerating 32

      Excessive Chinese Exports 33

      Growing Arbitrage Between East & West 34

      Risks To Price Outlook 34

      Table: Steel Data & Forecasts 35

      Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave) 35

Commodity Strategy 36

      Aluminium: Continued Short-Term Weakness 40

      Copper: Recent Strength Doesn't Change Our View 40

      Nickel: Recent Strength To Subside 42

      Zinc: Price Momentum To Continue 44

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 46

Competitive Landscape 47

      Table: US - Financial Data For Key Listed Metals Firms, FY 2013 47

Steel Sector To See Tailwinds 48

Base Metals Capacity To See Little Investment 48

Company Profile 50

Nucor 50

      Company Strategy 51

      Recent Financial Results 52

      Table: Nucor - Key Financial Data 53

Alcoa 54

      Recent Financial Data 57

      Table: Alcoa - Key Financial Data 58

ArcelorMittal 59

      Company Strategy 62

      Latest Financial Results 63

      Company Details 64

      Financial Data 64

      Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data 64

Methodology 65

Cross Checks 65

冶金工业信息标准研究院