The past decade of minimal growth in South Africa's mining sector is set to continue as the country's gold and platinum sectors face diminishing margins and industrial strife. Potential for growth in the iron ore and coal sectors constitute bright spots for the mining industry in the long term. We forecast South Africa's mining sector value to grow by an annual average rate of 1.1% over our forecast period, from US$32.7bn in 2014 to US$34.2bn in 2018.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Iron Ore: A Bright Spot For South Africa 11

      Table: South Africa - Major New Iron Ore Projects & Expansions 13

      Risks Lurking On The Horizon 13

      Table: South Africa - Iron Ore Production 14

Gold: Output Decline To Continue 14

      Potential Upside? 17

      Table: South Africa - Gold Production 17

Diamonds: Promising Outlook 17

      Downside Risks 18

      Table: South Africa - Largest Diamond Projects 19

      Table: South Africa - Diamond Production Forecast 19

Platinum: Bearish Outlook Across Sector 19

      Table: South Africa - New Platinum Projects 20

      Table: South Africa - Platinum Production 22

Palladium: Output To Stagnate 22

      Table: South Africa - Largest Palladium/Platinum Development Projects 24

      Table: South Africa - Palladium Production 24

Coal: Turnaround On The Horizon 24

      Table: South Africa - Major Projects & Expansions 25

      Domestic Consumption To Temper Export Boom 26

      Infrastructure A Major Downside Risk 27

      Carbon Tax Threat 28

      Table: South Africa - Coal Production 28

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 29

Risk/Reward Ratings 29

      Lower Gold Prices Reduce Rewards 29

      Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Ratings 30

      Reduced Rewards For Copper Mining 30

      Mixed Rankings For West Africa 31

      Substantial Rewards In Southern Africa 31

      Lack Of Uniformity In Regulatory Development 32

      Political & Infrastructure Risks Lurk 33

      Country Highlights 34

      South Africa: Deteriorating Environment For Mining Companies 34

      Mozambique: Mining Sector Set To Boom 35

      Botswana: All Round Outperformer 35

Market Overview 36

Global Share To Decline 38

Regulatory Hurdles 38

      Table: South Africa - Main Expansion Plans 38

Energy Costs & Labour Unrest To Hinder Miners 38

Weaker Rand To Provide Some Respite 39

      Table: South Africa - Mining Industry Value & Production 39

Regulatory Development 40

      Table: South Africa Political Overview 42

      Table: Africa - Regulatory Outlook & Ratings By Country 43

Commodities Forecast 45

Commodity Strategy 45

      Aluminium: Continued Short-Term Weakness 48

      Copper: Recent Strength Doesn't Change Our View 48

      Nickel: Recent Strength To Subside 50

      Zinc: Price Momentum To Continue 52

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 54

Competitive Landscape 55

Table: South Africa - Largest Mining Companies' Financial Data 56

Company Profile 58

AngloGold Ashanti 58

      Overview 59

      Strategy 60

      Table: AngloGold Ashanti - Key Financial Data 61

Anglo American 63

      Company Strategy 66

      Latest Results 67

      Table: Anglo American - Financial Data 68

Impala Platinum 69

      Table: Impala Platinum - Key Financial Data 72

Regional Overview 74

Mining - Africa Overview 74

      Key Opportunities 74

      1. Asian Investment Inflows To Continue 74

      2. Iron Ore Production In West Africa To Boom 75

      3. Southern Africa To Become A Key Coal Exporter 76

      Key Challenges 77

      1. Gold Crunch To Gain Traction 77

      2. Lack Of Infrastructure A Major Hurdle 78

      3. Regulatory Environment In Flux 79

      Table: Africa - Key Mining Regulatory Developments 80

Global Industry Overview 81

Methodology 93

Industry Forecast Methodology 93

Sources 94

Risk/Reward Rating Methodology 95

      Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators 97

      Table: Weighting Of Indicators 98

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