Certificate of entitlement (COE) prices for all vehicle categories rose in the second round of bidding in August 2014 on the back of strong demand, despite an increase in COE quotas over the past three months. We expect this dynamic to continue playing out over the next few years as car owners gradually replace their cars that are nearing their 10 year lifespan, pushing up demand. In view of rising COE quotas, we are revising our vehicle sales growth forecast for 2014 from a contraction of 3.0% to 14.4% growth.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT Analysis 9

SWOT 9

Political 11

Economic 12

Business Environment 13

Industry Forecast 14

      Table: Comparison Of Monthly COE Prices, 2nd Round Bidding (SGD) 14

      Table: New Registration Of Cars By Make (7M14) 17

      Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Singapore 2012-2018) 18

      Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Singapore 2012-2018) 19

      Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Singapore 2012-2018) 19

      Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Singapore 2012-2018) 20

Suppliers 23

Macroeconomic Forecast 26

Macroeconomic Analysis 26

      Holding Out Hope In Construction 26

      Trade Outlook Not So Bright 27

      MAS Stands Pat On Cue 27

      Table: Economic Activity (Singapore 2009-2018) 29

Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 30

Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings 30

      Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings - Asia-Pacific Autos 33

Company Profile 34

Company Monitor 34

BMW 37

Toyota 38

Regional Overview 39

      Table: Vehicle Sales June 2014 (CBUS) 39

Global Industry Overview 45

      Table: Passenger Car Sales May 2014 (CBUs) 45

Outperformers Boost European Outlook 45

Trucks Give North America A Lift 46

India Brings Relief To BRICs 48

Demographic Forecast 50

      Table: Singapore's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 51

      Table: Singapore's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 52

      Table: Singapore's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 53

      Table: Singapore's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 53

Methodology 54

Industry Forecasts 54

Sector-Specific Methodology 55

Sources 55

Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 56

      Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators 57

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