Mineral production growth is set for solid performance in Russia over the coming years. Growth rates for coal and gold will remain more robust than for PGMs and iron ore. Despite our modestly positive outlook, the sector will struggle to come to terms with lower global mineral prices. Moreover,foreign investors will struggle to establish a foothold due to restrictive regulations.

BMI Industry View 7

Coal To Outperform 8

SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Coal: Expansion Ahead 11

      Modernisation Of Coal Sector 13

      Exports Shifting From Europe To Asia 14

      Constrained By Infrastructure 15

      Table: Russia - Distance From Coal Production Area To Shipping Seaport 16

      Better Economics For Coking 17

      Table: Coal Production Forecast (Russia 2010-2018) 19

Gold: Natalka To Boost Production 20

      Polyus Gold Takes Charge 21

      Table: Gold Production Forecast (Russia 2010-2018) 22

Iron Ore: Weak Prices To Disincentivise Production 22

      A Hard Blow To Miners If Crimea Crisis Escalates 24

      Infrastructure Developments A Boon 24

      Table: Iron Ore Production (Russia, 2010-2018) 24

Nickel: Capacity Cutbacks To Constrain Growth 24

      Risk To Outlook 27

      Table: Nickel Mine Production (Russia, 2010-2018) 27

Palladium: Norilsk Output To Remain Subdued 27

      Table: Palladium Production (Russia 2010-2018) 30

Platinum: Weak Growth Story 31

      Table: Russia - Largest Platinum Projects 32

      Table: Platinum Production (Russia 2010-2018) 33

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 34

Russia Risk/Reward Ratings 34

      Rewards 34

      Industry Rewards 34

      Country Rewards 34

      Risks 35

      Industry Risks 35

      Country Risks 35

Europe Risk/Reward Ratings 36

      Downgrades For Coal Producers 37

      Subdued Metal Prices Reduce Rewards 37

      Table: Europe: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings 38

Regulatory Development 39

Foreign Investors To Find Little Success 39

Tax Regime 40

Corruption To Remain Key Concern 41

      Table: Europe: Mining Regulatory Index 41

      Table: Political Overview 42

Commodities Forecast 44

      Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast 44

Short-Term Outlook 44

Core View 45

Surplus Set To Slim 45

Production: Reining In Growth 46

Consumption: Deceleration Ahead 48

No Respite From Chinese Exports Over Coming Months 50

Arbitrage Set To Grow Between East And West 51

Risks To Price Outlook 52

      Table: Steel Data & Forecasts 52

      Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, USD/tonne (average) 53

Competitive Landscape 54

Key Players 54

      Table: Russia - Key Financial Data For Select Mining Companies 55

Company Profile 56

Polyus Gold 56

      Table: Polyus Gold - Financial Data 57

SUEK 59

Norilsk Nickel 62

      Company Overview 63

      Company Strategy 64

      Table: Norilsk Nickel - Key Financial Data 66

Regional Overview 67

Europe Overview 67

      Coal Industry Down But Not Out 67

      Weak Prices To Hinder Gold Projects 68

      Environmental Pressure Mounting 69

      Return Of Tin Mining 70

      Rare Earth Opportunities Over The Long Term 71

Global Industry Overview 73

Capex Cutbacks To Yield Rewards 73

M&A Activity To Pick Up 74

High Grade Opportunities In Iron Ore 75

Shifting Centre Of Growth For Platinum 76

Chinese & Indian Outbound Mineral Investment To Gather Pace 77

Shake-Up For Global Rare Earths Industry 78

Methodology 80

Industry Forecast Methodology 80

Sources 81

Risk/Reward Rating Methodology 82

      Table: Weighting Of Indicators 83

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