The past decade of stagnation in South Africa's mining sector is set to continue as the country's gold and platinum sectors face diminishing margins and industrial strife. Potential for growth in the iron ore and coal sectors constitute bright spots for the mining industry in the long term. We expect South Africa's mining sector value to grow by an annual average rate of 1.1% over the forecast period, from US$32.4bn in 2013 to US$34.0bn in 2017.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 10

Iron Ore: One Bright Spot For South Africa 10

      Table: South Africa - Major New Iron Ore Projects & Expansions 12

      Risks Lurking On The Horizon 12

      Table: South Africa - Iron Ore Production 13

Gold: Output Decline To Continue 13

      Potential Upside? 16

      Table: South Africa - Gold Production 16

Diamonds: Promising Outlook 17

      Table: South Africa - Largest Diamond Projects 18

      Zimbabwe Could Revolutionise Sector 18

      Table: South Africa - Diamond Production Forecast 19

Platinum: Bearish Outlook Across Sector 19

      Table: South Africa - New Platinum Projects 20

      Table: South Africa - Platinum Production 22

Palladium: Output To Stagnate 23

      Table: South Africa - Largest Development Projects 25

      Table: South Africa - Palladium Production 25

Coal: Turnaround On The Horizon 26

      Table: South Africa - Major Projects & Expansions 26

      South Africa Playing Its Part In Regional Boom 27

      Table: South Africa - Coal Production 29

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 30

Risk/Reward Ratings 30

      Lower Gold Prices Reduce Rewards 30

      Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Rewards Ratings 31

      Reduced Rewards For Copper Mining 31

      Mixed Rankings For West Africa 31

      Substantial Rewards In Southern Africa 32

      Lack Of Uniformity In Regulatory Development 33

      Political & Infrastructure Risks Lurk 33

      Country Highlights 34

      South Africa: Deteriorating Environment For Mining Companies 34

      Mozambique: Mining Sector Set To Boom 35

      Botswana: All Round Outperformer 35

Market Overview 36

Global Share To Decline 38

Regulatory Hurdles 38

      Table: South Africa - Main Expansion Plans 39

      Table: South Africa - Mining Industry Value & Production 40

Regulatory Development 41

      Table: South Africa Political Overview 43

      Table: Africa - Regulatory Outlook & Ratings By Country 44

Commodities Forecast 46

Iron Ore: Rally To Fade In Q413 47

Steel: Supply Glut To Endure 48

Aluminium: Surge Gives Way 49

Copper: Weak Outlook 50

Lead: Short-Term Weakness 51

Nickel: Still The Laggard 52

Zinc: Still A Surplus Market 55

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 56

      Table: Global Commodities Strategy 57

Competitive Landscape 58

      Table: South Africa - Largest Mining Companies' Financial Data 59

Company Profile 61

Anglo American 61

      Company Strategy 64

      Table: Anglo American - Financial Data 66

AngloGold Ashanti 67

      Overview 68

      Strategy 69

      Table: AngloGold Ashanti - Key Financial Data 70

Impala Platinum 71

      Table: Impala Platinum - Key Financial Data 74

Regional Overview 76

Africa Overview 76

      1. Chinese Investment Inflows To Continue 76

      2. Lack Of Infrastructure A Major Hurdle 77

      3. Regulatory Environment In Flux 78

      Table: Key Regulatory Developments 79

      4. Gold Crunch To Gain Traction 79

      5. Iron Ore Production In West Africa To Boom 81

      6. Southern Africa To Become A Key Coal Exporter 82

Global Industry Overview 83

Downturn To Continue Into 2014 83

      1.China Slowdown To Drive Mining Moderation 83

      2. Frontier Mining Increasingly Challenging 84

      3. Mining Services Firms Facing Tough Outlook 86

But Opportunities Still Exist 88

      1. Asian Outward Investment Continues 88

      2. Private Equity Entering The Mix 90

      3. Global Thermal Coal Demand Still Growing 91

Methodology 94

Industry Forecast Methodology 94

Sources 95

Risk/Reward Rating Methodology 96

Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators 97

      Table: Weighting Of Indicators 98

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