BMI is forecasting weak growth for the South African economy over the medium term based on a slowdown in China and ongoing retrenchment in the gold mining sector. Recent industrial unrest, that looks set to continue in 2014, coupled with poor infrastructure and faltering economic growth has contributed to our bearish outlook for the South African automotive sector.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Political 11

Economic 12

Business Environment 13

Industry Forecast 14

Sales 14

      Table: Automotive Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts 14

Production 18

      Table: Automotive Production - Historical Data & Forecasts 18

Competitive Landscape 21

      Commercial Vehicles 23

      Spare Parts 26

      Alternative Fuels 27

Suppliers 29

Macroeconomic Forecast 35

Table: Real GDP Growth, % chg q-o-q, SAAR 38

Table: South Africa - Economic Activity 40

Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 41

Africa - Risk/Reward Ratings 41

      Table: Autos Risk/Reward Ratings Sub-Saharan Africa 44

Company Profile 45

Toyota South Africa 45

Mercedes-Benz South Africa 47

MAN Truck And Bus (South Africa) 49

Volkswagen South Africa (VWSA) 50

General Motors South Africa (GMSA) 52

Nissan South Africa 54

Ford Motor South Africa 57

Regional Overview 59

Africa Overview 59

      Sometimes It's Who You Know 59

      A Matter Of Price 61

      Cars May Take Longer 62

Global Industry Overview 64

Demographic Forecast 68

      Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 69

      Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 70

      Table: South Africa's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 71

      Table: South Africa's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 71

Methodology 72

Industry Forecasts 72

Sector-Specific Methodology 73

Sources 73

Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 74

      Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators 75

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