BMI is forecasting weak growth for the South African economy over the medium term based on a slowdown in China and ongoing retrenchment in the gold mining sector. Recent industrial unrest, which looks set to continue in 2014, coupled with poor infrastructure and faltering economic growth has contributed to our bearish outlook for the South African automotive sector. After witnessing a slow start to the year, we forecast total vehicle sales will grow a meagre 1.5% in 2014.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Political 11

Economic 12

Business Environment 13

Industry Forecast 14

Sales 14

      Table: Automotive Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts 14

Production 17

      Table: Automotive Production - Historical Data & Forecasts 17

Competitive Landscape 20

      Commercial Vehicles 22

      Spare Parts 24

      Alternative Fuels 25

Macroeconomic Forecast 28

Economic Analysis 28

      Table: Real GDP Growth, % chg q-o-q, SAAR 28

      Table: South Africa - Economic Activity 33

Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 34

Africa - Risk Reward/Ratings 34

Table: Autos Risk/Reward Ratings - Sub-Saharan Africa 37

Company Profile 38

Company Monitor 38

      Table: Top 20 SSA Consumer Markets, 2013 39

Toyota South Africa 40

Mercedes-Benz South Africa 42

MAN Truck And Bus (South Africa) 44

Volkswagen South Africa (VWSA) 45

General Motors South Africa (GMSA) 47

Nissan South Africa 49

Ford Motor South Africa 52

Regional Overview 54

Autos - Africa: Fruits of Investment A Key Theme For 2014 54

      Competition Heats Up In Kenya 54

      Hubs Developing? 56

      Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Investment Projects 56

      Divergent Fortunes Of Nigeria And South Africa 58

Global Industry Overview 59

      Table: Passenger Car Sales November 2013 (CBUs) 59

Europe On Road To Recovery 59

Tax Hike Skews Japan's Outlook; US Hits Sweet 16 61

China Is BRIC Bright Spot 63

Demographic Forecast 66

      Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 67

      Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 68

      Table: South Africa's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 69

      Table: South Africa's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 69

Methodology 70

Industry Forecasts 70

Sector-Specific Methodology 71

Sources 71

Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 72

      Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators 73

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