Germany's metals sector will continue to feel the squeeze as output prices remain low and costs stay stubbornly high. We forecast subdued growth in consumption of key metals such as steel, copper and aluminium, chiefly due to a muted outlook for economic activity in the country. Key metal consuming sectors such as autos and construction will remain weak. For autos production, we do not foresee a return to growth until 2018 at the earliest.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Metals SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Steel: Few Gains Ahead 11

      Production To Remain Under Pressure 13

      Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Germany 2010-2018) 14

      Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Germany 2005-2012) 15

Aluminium: Low Prices To Constrain Sector 16

      Table: Aluminium Production & Consumption (Germany 2010-2018) 19

Copper: Sector To Struggle 19

      Table: Refined Copper Production, Consumption & Balance (Germany 2010-2018) 22

Lead: Holding Steady 22

      Table: Germany - Lead Production & Consumption 25

Regulatory Development 26

      Table: Political Overview 29

Commodities Forecast 31

Commodity Strategy 31

      Iron Ore: Not Much Respite In Sight 31

      Steel: Production Rationalisation Too Slow To Provide Price Upside 33

      Aluminium: Further Price Rally Unlikely 34

      Lead: Ripe For A H214 Boost 35

      Copper: Consensus Moving Our Way 36

      Nickel: Price Surge To Abate Further 37

      Tin: In A Sweet Spot 38

      Zinc: Bullish Short-Term Picture 39

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 41

Commodities Forecast 41

      Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast 41

      Short-Term Outlook 41

      Core View 42

      Surplus Set To Slim 43

      Production: Reining In Growth 43

      Consumption: Deceleration Ahead 45

      No Respite From Chinese Exports Over Coming Months 47

      Arbitrage Set To Grow Between East And West 47

      Risks To Price Outlook 48

      Table: Steel Data & Forecasts 49

      Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, USD/tonne (average) 49

Competitive Landscape 51

      Table: Germany - Largest Listed Metals Producers 52

Company Profile 53

ArcelorMittal 53

      Company Overview 55

      Company Strategy 55

      Latest Financial Results 57

      Company Details 57

      Financial Data 57

      Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data 57

ThyssenKrupp AG 58

      Table: ThyssenKrupp - Key Financial Data 60

Methodology 62

Cross Checks 62

冶金工业信息标准研究院