Mining firms in Indonesia will be forced to put the brakes on investment as the economic slowdown in China drags on mineral prices. The export ban on raw minerals will have a decisive impact on the fortunes of Indonesia's mining industry. While no official announcement has been made, our core view remains that the export ban will eventually be rolled back due to mounting economic headwinds and practical consideration.

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 10

Bauxite: Export Ban To Find Limited Success 10

      Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (Indonesia 2010-2018) 12

Coal: Digging Hard, But Risks Lurk 12

      Table: Indonesia - Select Coal Projects 13

      Infrastructure Developments Underway 14

      Risks To Outlook 15

      Table: Coal Production Forecast (Indonesia 2010-2018) 16

Copper: Majors In Distress, Slowdown Ahead 16

      Table: Indonesia - Largest Copper Projects 18

Nickel: Healthy Growth On The Horizon 19

      Table: Indonesia - Largest Nickel Projects 20

      Table: Nickel Production Forecast (Indonesia 2010-2018) 22

Tin: Modest Growth Ahead 22

      Table: Tin Production Forecast (Indonesia 2010-2018) 24

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 25

Risk/Reward Ratings 25

      Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index 29

Risk/Reward Ratings 29

      Rewards 30

      Industry Rewards 30

      Country Rewards 30

      Risks 31

      Industry Risks 31

      Country Risks 31

      Table: Indonesia - Mining Industry Value & Production Forecasts 32

Regulatory Development 33

Recent Developments 33

Policy Moderation On The Cards 33

      Table: Indonesia - Export Restrictions On Select Commodities 33

New Mining Law of 2009 34

Tax Regime 35

Corruption To Remain Key Concern 36

      Table: Asia - Mining Regulatory Scorecard 36

      Table: Political Overview 37

Commodities Forecast 39

Commodity Strategy 39

      Ferrous Metals: 39

      Iron Ore: Price Slump Overdone, Stabilisation In Sight 39

      Steel: Price Forecast Revised Up 40

      Non-Ferrous Metals: 42

      Aluminium: Recent Break Signals Multi-Month Strength 42

      Copper: Subdued Prices Into Q314 43

      Lead: Prices To Strengthen As Deficit Deepens 44

      Nickel: H214 Rally Unlikely 45

      Tin: More Resilient Than Other Metals 46

      Zinc: Sustained Break Unlikely 48

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 49

Competitive Landscape 51

Key Players 51

      Table: Financial Data For Key Mining Firms Listed In Indonesia 52

Company Profile 53

PT Antam 53

      Table: PT Antam - Key Financial Data 55

PT Bumi Resources 57

      Table: Bumi Resources - Key Financial Data 59

PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) 61

      Table: ITMG - Key Financial Data 64

PT Timah 66

      Table: PT Timah - Key Financial Data 68

Regional Overview 70

Asia - Q3 2014 70

      Challenges 70

      Opportunities 73

Global Industry Overview 78

Challenges 78

      Table: Mining - Select M&A Deals 82

Cause For Optimism 85

Methodology 92

Industry Forecast Methodology 92

Sources 93

Risk/Reward Rating Methodology 94

      Table: Weighting Of Indicators 96

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