The depreciation of the South African rand and the flatness of Chinese HC FeCr prices over the last three months paved the way for a rollover in the Q2 benchmark price. It is the first time since 2009 that the benchmark price has failed to increase for Q2 deliveries.

Executive summary 1

Chapter 1 The outlook for ferrochrome demand 9

1. Overview 9

2. Stainless steel production 10

3. Stainless steel scrap 13

4. High carbon ferrochrome consumption 16

5. CR antidumping implications 17

Chapter 2 The outlook for high carbon ferrochrome supply 21

1. Overview 21

2. Topical analysis and forecasts 24

      2.1 South Africa vs. China: Forex and power costs 24

      2.2 Chinese output to remain under pressure in H1 2015 26

      2.3 Rationalisation of the Indian FeCr industry gathering mementum 28

      2.4 Outlook for Kazakhstani production 30

      2.5 Second producer starts up in Oman 32

      2.6 Albanian output to increase 34

      2.7 Samancor to cut MC and LC FeCr production 34

Chapter 3 The supply/demand balance and prices 37

1. Overview 37

2. The supply/demand balance 38

      2.1 Weak demand, declining prices: the hangover from H1 2014 and the effect of recent exchange rate fluctuations 38

      2.2 Market balance favours price recovery through 2015 39

      2.3 Risk of market deficits increase late in forecast period 40

3. Prices 42

      3.1 Prices likely to bottom out soon 42

      3.2 Rising costs, requirements for Chinese supply growth implies higher market prices through late 2015-16 42

      3.3 Market deficit post-2017 should push prices higher 42

4. Points to watch 47

Chapter 4 Medium and low carbon ferrochrome 49

1. Overview 49

2. World consumption 50

3. World production 53

4. DLA inventory & sales 55

5. World supply/demand balance and prices 56

Chapter 5 Chrome ore 59

1. Overview 59

2. Production 60

3. Chinese chrome ore imports and UG2 64

4. Price Forecast 66

Appendix A Industrial and economic outlook, 2015-2019 67

Statistical review 95

1. Stainless steel production 95

2. Ferrochrome production 104

3. Ferrochrome balance and prices 115

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