CRU's March 2015 edition of the Sulphur Market Outlook reports in detail on the condition of the global sulphur market and the prospects in the medium term for supply, demand, trade and prices (2014-2019). Appendix A of the report provides our longer term view and the outlook to 2039 for supply, demand and the long run equilibrium prices for sulphur. A number of key issues are shaping the sulphur market in the short to medium term and influencing CRU's outlook:
Tight supply, high prices. Prices at major benchmarks started to rise in late November as Chinese phosphate fertilizer producers entered the market in anticipation of the coming Spring Festival. Most volumes were contracted at high prices, reducing availability for spot businesses. This pushed spot prices to reach highs of $ 184/t CFR in Q1 2015.
A change in Chinese policy that could reshape trades patterns and reduce price volatility. The Chinese government announced in December 2014 a new policy on exports tariffs in the phosphate fertilizer industry. The new policy stipulates a flat tariff of RMB100/t throughout the year rather than different tariffs in place during the low and high seasons. The new policy will give more flexibility to Chinese phosphate producers and allow them to target different markets throughout the year. Chinese sulphur imports are expected to become more regular throughout the year, smoothing out price volatility.
Oil prices slump: what are the impacts on the sulphur market? Despite the large decrease in oil prices, CRU does not expect these short term price drops to influence the sulphur market. Projects that are at an advanced stage or being commissioned are unlikely to be put on hold as a direct result of the current depressed price environment, and thus, sulphur production is expected to remain unchanged. The risk lies outside the medium term forecast, if oil prices remain at low levels. Major oil companies are likely to review their project pipeline and decide whether to go ahead, placing any uncertainty on longer term sulphur supply.

Executive Summary 1

Chapter 1 - Demand 9

1.1 Global Sulphur Consumption 9

      1.1.1 Summary of key changes to the outlook 9

      1.1.2 Global overview 10

1.2 Phosphoric Acid 11

      1.2.1 Global overview 11

      1.2.2 Regional Market Forecasts 13

1.3 Ammonium Sulphate 17

      1.3.1 Global overview 17

      1.3.2 Regional Market Forecasts 17

1.4 SSP 19

      1.4.1 Global Overview 19

      1.4.2 Regional Market Forecasts 19

1.5 Copper SX-EW 20

      1.5.1 Global Overview 20

      1.5.2 Regional Market Forecasts 20

1.6 Nickel 21

      1.6.1 Global Overview 21

      1.6.2 Regional Market Forecasts 22

1.7 Uranium 23

      1.7.1 Global Overview 23

      1.7.2 Regional Market Forecasts 23

1.8 Industrial Demand 24

      1.8.1 Global Overview 24

      1.8.2 Regional Market Forecasts 24

1.9 Non-acid sulphur demand 25

      1.9.1 Global Overview 25

Chapter 2 - Supply 27

2.1 Global Sulphur Supply 27

      2.1.1 Summary of key changes to the forecast 27

      2.1.2 Global overview 28

2.2 Sulphur supply by region 30

      2.2.1 North America 30

      2.2.2 Central/South America 32

      2.2.3 Europe 33

      2.2.4 CIS 35

      2.2.5 Middle East 40

      2.2.6 East Asia 42

      2.2.7 South Asia & South East Asia 43

Chapter 3 - Trade, Balance and Prices 45

3.1 Trade 45

      3.1.1 Recent Developments: Imports 45

      3.1.2 Recent Developments: Exports 47

3.2 Balance and Trade Outlook 50

      3.2.1 Global Sulphur Market Balance 50

      3.2.2 Regional market forecasts 54

3.3 Prices 58

      3.3.1 Recent Price Developments 58

Appendices

Appendix A - The Long Term Outlook for the Sulphur Market 65

A.1 Introduction 66

A.2 Outlook for Long Term Demand and Supply 67

      A.2.1 Long Term Demand for Sulphur 67

      A.2.2 Long Term Supply for Sulphur 75

      A.2.3 Long term outlook for the balance 77

A.3 Determining a long term trend price for sulphur 79

      A.3.1 LRMC in the sulphur market 79

      A.3.2 Methodology for calculating the LRMC 81

      A.3.3 Escalation and Forecast of the LRMC 82

A.4 Risks to the outlook 87

Appendix B - Economic Outlook 89

B.1 Overview 89

B.2 Exchange rates 94

B.3 Macro-economic outlook 96

B.4 Scenario 105

Appendix C - World Sulphur Production by Raw Material,2012-2019 109

Appendix D - Elemental Sulphur Production by Country,Region and Source, 2012-2019 113

Appendix E - World Sulphur Consumption by End Use, 2012-2019 119

Appendix F - Elemental Sulphur Consumption, 2012-2019 125

Appendix G - Pyrites Production by Country and Region, 2012-2019 129

Appendix H - SOF Production by Country and Region, 2012-2019 131

Appendix I - Elemental Sulphur Balance, 2012-2019 135

Appendix J - Sulphur Imports, 2012-2019 139

Appendix K - Sulphur Exports, 2012-2019 143

Appendix L - Elemental Sulphur Trade Matrix, 2014 147

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