Interest is picking up in India: since the announcement to raise phosphate and potash budget allocation by 8% for the 2015/2016 fertilizer year, stock-building has supported phosphate prices - trading at US$484/tonne during March 2015. India has offered better netbacks than MAP cfr BRAZIL and DAP fob NOLA. With market contraction in the USA and a slowdown in Brazil, growth in India will be key to major exporters.
The devaluation of the rouble increases Russian product competitiveness: the rouble has lost around 30% in value against the US dollar since March 2014. This has slashed production costs and enabled producers to re-enter competitive markets, such as India, where it has been absent from since 2012.
Chinese producers are switching from MAP to DAP capacity: having already committed 1.0 million tonnes DAP product into India 2015YTD and with bearish outlooks elsewhere, Chinese producers have been switching to DAP production to capitalize on better margins and good demand. The BIG-4 Chinese producers are expected to export around 2.8 million tonnes DAP product in 2015 to India alone.

Glossary of Terms

Executive Summary 1

Chapter 1 - Demand 13

1.1 Overview of global phosphate demand 13

1.2 Agricultural Market Overview 14

      1.2.1 Short and medium term considerations 14

      1.2.2 Implications for phosphate nutrient demand 18

1.3 Regional Assessment of phosphate demand 20

      1.3.1 Americas 20

      1.3.2 Europe and CIS 28

      1.3.3 Asia 30

      1.3.4 Africa 33

      1.3.5 Rest of the World (ROW) 34

Chapter 2 - Supply 35

2.1 Overview of global phosphate fertilizer supply 35

2.1.1 DAP Fertilizer cost review 40

2.2 Regional overview of concentrated phosphate fertilizer supply 45

      2.2.1 North America 47

      2.2.2 East Asia 50

      2.2.3 Africa 53

      2.2.4 Middle East 57

      2.2.5 Central & South America 59

      2.2.6 Rest of the World (RoW) 62

Chapter 3 - Trade, Balance and Prices 67

3.1 Recent developments and forecast for trade 67

      3.1.1 Phosphoric acid 67

      3.1.2 Concentrated Phosphate Fertilizer 71

3.2 Global supply/demand position 78

3.3 Medium term outlook for phosphate fertilizer prices 79

      3.3.1 Introduction and methodology 79

      3.3.2 The underlying drivers 79

      3.3.3 The outlook for phosphate fertilizer prices through to 2019 84

Appendices

Appendix A - The long term outlook for the phosphate market 93

A.1 Introduction 93

A.2 The long term outlook for phosphate demand 93

A.3 The long term outlook for phosphate supply 103

A.4 Determining a long term trend price for phosphate 104

      A.4.1 Introduction to Marginal Cost theory 104

      A.4.2 Selection of long run producers 105

      A.4.3 Raw material LRMC outlook 108

      A.4.4 DAP long run marginal cost in 2012 110

      A.4.5 Escalation of the long run marginal cost 113

      A.4.6 Risks to the outlook 114

Appendix B - Industrial and economic outlook, 2014-2019 117

B.1 Overview 117

B.2 Exchange rates 122

B.3 Macroeconomic outlook 124

B.4 Scenario 133

Appendix C - Total phosphate consumption 143

Appendix D - Phosphoric acid 145

Appendix E - Diammonium phosphate 155

Appendix F - Monoammonium phosphate 165

Appendix G - Triple superphosphate 175

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