Rock demand lowered... again: Global demand has been revised downwards to 196.4 million tonnes in 2014, with largest adjustments made to Morocco because of construction delays. The forecast now sees demand growing to 209.6 million tonnes in 2019, registering a CAGR of 1.3% p.a.
ICL invests into Chinese rock capacity: December saw ICL announce that it had invested US$452 million into YPC, entitling it to joint ownership of the Baitacun and Haikou mines in Yunnan. This is the first foreign investment into rock capacity in the country, and raises questions over the government's policy over rock security. Could this move signal a flood of investment into Chinese resources?
Only two junior mining projects now included in our forecast: In February 2015, consent to mine the Chatham Rock's subsea deposit was turned down on environmental grounds. As such, we have removed it from our base case outlook, leaving in only two junior mining projects; Hinda and FOSPAC.
Weaker prices of high grade sedimentary rock: An increase in igneous rock availability (from Russia and South Africa) has coincided with the tailing off of buying in New Zealand, which has pushed Bou-Craa prices down by 14% year-on-year in 2014.

Executive Summary 1

Chapter 1 - Demand 13

1.1 Overview of global phosphate rock demand 13

1.2 Regional overview of phosphate rock demand 18

      1.1.1 Asia 18

      1.1.2 North America 21

      1.1.3 Central and South America 22

      1.1.4 Africa 23

      1.1.5 Rest of the World 25

Chapter 2 - Supply 27

2.1 Overview of global phosphate rock supply 27

2.2 Overview of regional phosphate rock supply 30

      2.2.1 North America 32

      2.2.2 Africa 34

      2.2.3 Middle East 37

      2.2.4 China 39

      2.2.5 Central and South America 41

      2.2.6 Rest of the World 43

Chapter 3 - Trade, Balance & Prices 47

3.1 Recent developments and forecasts for trade 47

3.2 Medium term outlook for phosphate rock prices 53

      3.2.1 Phosphate rock supply/demand position 53

      3.2.2 The outlook for freight rates 54

      3.2.3 The outlook for exchange rates 55

      3.2.4 The outlook for phosphate rock prices through to 2019 56

Appendix A - The Long Term Outlook for the phosphate rock market 59

A.1 Introduction 59

A.2 The long term outlook for phosphate rock demand 59

A.3 The long term outlook for phosphate rock supply 66

A.4 Determining a long term trend price for phosphate 67

      A.4.1 Introduction to Marginal Cost theory 67

      A.4.2 Selection of the long run marginal producers 68

      A.4.3 Phosphate rock LRMC in 2012 71

      A.4.5 Escalation of the long run marginal cost 73

A.5 Risks to the outlook 75

Appendix B - Industrial and economic outlook, 2015-2019 77

B.1 Overview 77

B.2 Exchange rates 82

B.3 Macro-economic outlook 84

B.4 Scenario 93

Appendix C - Total Phosphate Rock Consumption 2011-2019 97

Appendix D - Total Phosphate Rock Production 2011-2019 100

Appendix E - Total Phosphate Rock Capacity 2011-2019 102

Appendix F - Total Phosphate Rock Imports 2011-2019 104

Appendix G - Total Phosphate Rock Exports 2011-2019 106

中国化工信息中心