The Agricultural Outlook 2013-2022 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations and inputfrom collaborating member countries to provide an annual assessment of prospects for the coming decade of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets. This year’s edition contains for the first time a chapter on world cotton markets. Chapter 2 has been prepared with assistance from the Agricultural Information Institute (All) of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and the Ministry 0/Agriculture (MoA) of the Government of China. However, responsibility for the information and projections contained in this document remain those of the OECD and FAO, and do not necessarily refect the views of the All or of the MoA.
The baseline projection is not a forecast about the future, but rather a plausible scenario elaborated on the basis of specific assumptions regarding the macroeconomic conditions, the agriculture and trade policy settings, weather conditions, longer term productivity trends and international market developments. The projections of production, consumption, stocks, trade and prices for the different agricultural products described and analysed in this report cover the years 2013 to 2022. The evolution of markets over the outlook period is typically described using the annual growth rate or percentage changes for thef nal year 2022 relative to a three-year base period of 2010-12.
The individual commodity projections are subject to critical examination by national country experts of OECD, other collaborating countries and industry experts prior to their finalisation and publication in this report. The risks and uncertainties around the baseline projections are examined through a number of possible alternative scenarios and stochastic analysis, which illustrate how market outcomes may differ from the deterministic baseline projections.
The fully documented outlook database, including historical data and projections, is available through the OECD-FAO joint internet site www.agri-outlook.org.

Acronyms and abbreviations 14

Executive summary 19

Chapter 1. Overview of the OECD-FAO Outlook 2013-2022 23

Introduction 24

Food price inflation 27

Macro and policy settings 30

Main commodity market developments 34

Risks and uncertainties 56

Notes 64

Chapter 2. Feeding China: Prospects and challenges in the next decade 65

Introduction 66

The success of China’s agriculture 67

The outlook for China’s agricultural sector 75

The commodity outlook for China 2013-22 84

Risks and uncertainties 99

Conclusion 103

Notes 103

References 104

Chapter 3. Biofuels 105

Market situation 106

Projection highlights 106

Market trends and prospects 107

Risks and uncertainties 115

Notes 119

Chapter 4. Cereals 121

Market situation 122

Projection highlights 122

Market trends and prospects 124

Main issues and uncertainties 134

Notes 137

Reference 137

Chapter 5. Oilseeds 139

Market situation . 140

Projection highlights 140

Market trends and prospects 141

Risks and uncertainties 147

Notes 150

References 150

Chapter 6. Sugar 151

Market situation 152

Projection highlights 152

Market trends and prospects 154

Main issues and uncertainties 168

Chapter 7. Meat 171

Market situation 172

Projection highlights 172

Market trends and prospects 174

Key issues and uncertainties 185

Chapter 8. Fish and Seafood 191

Market situation 192

Projection highlights 192

Main issues and uncertainties 200

Notes 203

Chapter 9. Dairy 205

Market situation 206

Projection highlights 206

Market trends and prospects 207

Risks and uncertainties 215

Chapter 10. Cotton 217

Market situation 218

Projection highlights 218

Market trends and prospects 218

Main issues and uncertainties 225

Glossary of terms 231

Methodology 243

Statistical Annex 249

Tables

1.1. Yield changes in 2012 due to the drought 25

1.2. Share of OECD in world imports and exports of agricultural products declines 52

1.3. ACVs (%) of key macroeconomic variables and the crude price, 2013-22 58

1.4. ACVs (%) of yield for selected arable crops, 2013-22 59

1.5. ACVs (%) for selected baseline variables, conditional on macroeconomic and crop yield uncertainty separately and jointly, 2013-22 60

2.1. Food Insecurity in China: FAO estimates of the number of people undernourished 70

2.2. China: Food consumption by category, rural vs. urban 79

4.1. Rice food per capita consumption 132

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