The Agricultural Outlook is prepared jointly by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. The main purpose of the report is the attempt to build consensus on global prospects for the agriculture, fisheries and food sectors, and on emerging issues which affect them. Accordingly, the projections and assessments provided in the report are the result of close co-operation with national experts in OECD countries as well as some key non-OECD countries and agro-industry organisations, reflecting the combined knowledge and expertise of this wide group of collaborators. A jointly developed modelling system, based on the OECD's Aglink and FAO’s Cosimo models facilitates consistency and analysis of the projections. The fully documented outlook database, including historical data and projections, is available through the OECD-FAO joint internet site www.agri-outlook.org.
This annual report provides market projections for biofuels, cereals, oilseeds, sugar, meats, dairy products and fish and seafood over the 2012-21 period. The market assessments are contingent on a set of underlying assumptions regarding macroeconomic factors and the continuation of domestic agricultural and trade policies. They also assume normal weather conditions and long-term productivity trends. As such, the Outlook presents a plausible view on the evolution of global agricultural markets over the next decade and provides a baseline for further analysis of alternative economic or policy assumptions.
The setting for this Outlook is one of lowering of agricultural commodity prices from near record levels in response to a large rebound in supplies of major crops and a weaker macroeconomic environment. Food price inflation has eased but remains a concern in developing countries. Looking ahead, the short run global economic outlook has weakened with inflation over the medium term in the major emerging economies expected to be above the OECD area average. Other key assumptions are for a slower population growth and much higher energy prices in the coming decade.
A critical question addressed in this report is whether the supply response to projected higher commodity prices will be sufficient to meet the future demand for food, feed, fuel and fibre. Rising input costs, increasing resource constraints, growing environmental pressures and the uncertainties of climate change will all have an impact on agricultural output. The key issue facing global agriculture is how to increase productivity in a more sustainable way.

Acronyms and Abbreviations 11

The Outlook in Brief 15

Chapter 1. Overview of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2012 19

Introduction 20

The setting - A large rebound in supplies to calm markets 20

Summary of main market trends and developments 27

Risks and uncertainties 40

Notes 46

Chapter 2. Achieving Sustainable Agricultural Productivity Growth 49

Can supply keep up with rising demand? 50

What are the land and water constraints for agriculture? 52

What has been the performance in agricultural productivity growth? 55

What is the potential for future partial and total factor productivity growth? 57

What would be the impact of reducing the yield gap in developing countries? 59

Why the need for sustainable agricultural productivity growth? 65

What farm practices can increase sustainable agricultural productivity growth? 69

Policy challenges 77

Summary 80

Notes 81

References 82

Chapter 3. Biofuels 87

Market situation 88

Projection highlights 88

Market trends and prospects 89

Main issues and uncertainties 95

Notes 103

Annex 3.A1. US biofuel policy 105

Annex 3.A2. Uncertainties around the implementation options of US biofuel policies: Results of the scenarios 113

Chapter 4. Cereals 119

Market situation 120

Projection highlights 120

Market trends and prospects 121

Main issues and uncertainties 128

Notes 132

References 132

Chapter 5. Oilseeds and Oilseed Products 133

Market situation 134

Projection highlights 134

Market trends and prospects 135

Main issues and uncertainties 141

References 143

Chapter 6. Sugar 145

Market situation 146

Projection highlights 146

Market trends and prospects 148

Main issues and uncertainties 158

Chapter 7. Meat 163

Market situation 164

Projection highlights 164

Market trends and prospects 165

Main issues and uncertainties 170

Chapter 8. Fish and Seafood 173

Market situation 174

Projection highlights 174

Market trends and prospects 175

Main issues and uncertainties 180

Notes 182

Chapter 9. Dairy 185

Market situation 186

Projection highlights 186

Market trends and prospects 187

Market issues and uncertainties 196

Glossary of Terms 199

Methodology 211

Statistical Annex 217

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