The major threat to political stability in 2015-19 is the risk of the elderly president, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, leaving office suddenly, owing to either ill health or a coup, which could create a destabilising power contest.
We expect the fiscal deficit to narrow gradually over the outlook period, reaching 2.5% of GDP in 2019, as felling oil revenue and limited access to external financing force the government to tighten fiscal policy.
The economy will contract by an average of 1.7% a year in 2015-17 as oil production drops and public investment fells, before staging a modest recovery in 2018-19 on the back of rising natural gas output.

Highlights 7

Political outlook 8

Economic policy outlook 9

Economic forecast 11

Annual data and forecast 14

Quarterly data 15

Monthly data 16

Annual trends charts 17

Monthly trends charts 18

Comparative economic indicators 19

Basic data 20

Political structure 21

Politics 22

Economy 30

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