Islamic State (IS) controls about one-third of Iraq. Our central forecast is for it to be gradually pushed back, but to retain significant territory until at least end-2015 and to continue terrorist attacks for much of the forecast period.
There remains a significant risk of a long-term de facto partition if the new government is able to overcome long-standing disputes between Sunnis, Kurds and Shias and unite them against IS.

Highlights 7

Political outlook 8

Economic policy outlook 10

Economic forecast 11

Annual data and forecast 14

Quarterly data 15

Monthly data 16

Annual trends charts 17

Monthly trends charts 18

Comparative economic indicators 19

Basic data 20

Political structure 21

Politics 22

Economy 41

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