The domestic political outlook is uncertain following the purge of Jang
Song—thaek,the uncle and mentor of North Korea's young leader,Kim
Jong-un，in December 2013．
Although such a move may indicate the growing confidence of KimJong—un，
it disturbs a delicate balance of power between competing interest groups in
the country's three most powerful institutions：the cabinet，army and party．

Summary 7

Basic data 8

Political structure 9

Economic structure 10

Annual indicators 10

Outlook for 2014-15 11

Political outlook 11

Economic policy outlook 13

Economic forecast 14

Recent analysis 17

Politics 17

Economy 24

International assumptions summary 14

Forecast summary 16

中国科学技术信息研究所