Nepal will see an upsurge in political protest over the forecast period as the opposition Maoists seek to prevent the government from promulgating a constitution that does not take account of their views.
The political situation remains fluid as protests mount. Continued instability may lead to a fresh election, but our central forecast is that the non-Maoist coalition parties will remain in power without going to the polls.

Summary 7

Basic data 8

Political structure 9

Economic structure 10

Annual indicators 10

Quarterly indicators 11

Outlook for 2015-16 12

Political outlook 12

Democracy index 14

Economic policy outlook 15

Economic forecast 16

Recent analysis 19

Politics 19

Economy 24

International assumptions summary 16

Forecast summary 18

Consumer prices 11

Foreign reserves 11

Gross domestic product 18

Consumer price inflation 18

Summary 29

Basic data 30

Political structure 31

Economic structure 32

Annual indicators 32

Quarterly indicators 33

Outlook for 2015-16 34

Political outlook 34

Democracy index 36

Economic policy outlook 37

Economic forecast 38

Recent analysis 42

Politics 42

Economy 45

International assumptions summary 38

Forecast summary 40

Exchange rate 33

Foreign reserves 33

Gross domestic product 41

Consumer price inflation 41

Summary 56

Basic data 57

Political structure 58

Economic structure 59

Annual indicators 59

Quarterly indicators 60

Outlook for 2015-16 5

Political outlook 5

Democracy index 62

Economic policy outlook 5

Economic forecast 65

Recent analysis 68

Politics 68

Economy 5

International assumptions summary 65

Forecast summary 67

Consumer prices and money supply 60

Exchange rate 60

Gross domestic product 67

Consumer price inflation 67

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