Political stability in Afghanistan will remain poor, with an ongoing campaign of insurgency by various groups, notably the Taliban.
The uncertainty engendered by the withdrawal of most international forces in 2014 means that the likelihood of fragmentation of the state and continued conflict in Afghanistan remains high.

Summary 7

Basic data 8

Political structure 9

Economic structure 10

Annual indicators 10

Quarterly indicators 11

Outlook for 2015-16 12

Political outlook 12

Economic policy outlook 14

Economic forecast 16

Recent analysis 18

Politics 18

International assumptions summary 16

Consumer prices 11

Exchange rate 11

Gross domestic product 17

Consumer price inflation 17

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