The rise of the PSB candidate，Marina Silva，in the polls has increased
uncertainty over the October election result．If she sustains the momentum,
this would put the re—election bid of the president，Dilma Rousseff,in doubt．
A Silva govemment would bring more orthodox andmarket-oriented policies
than another Rousseff term，boosting investor confidence．However,appetite
for pro—growth structural reforms in Congress would remain weak．

Highlights 7

Political outlook 8

Economic policy outlook 9

Economic forecast 11

Annual data and forecast 15

Quarterly data 16

Monthly data 17

Annual trends charts 19

Quarterly trends charts 20

Monthly trends charts 21

Comparative economic indicators 22

Basic data 23

Political structure 24

Politics 25

Economy 45

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