The president, Imomali Rahmon, will continue to dominate the political scene in 2015-16. A legislative election in March 2015 will not result in any significant changes in policy direction, or lead to democratisation.
Poverty, unemployment, austerity, power shortages, oppression and external disruption will remain possible sources of political destabilisation in 2015-16.

Summary 7

Basic data 8

Political structure 9

Economic structure 10

Annual indicators 10

Quarterly indicators 11

Comparative economic indicators 12

Outlook for 2015-16 13

Political outlook 13

Economic policy outlook 14

Economic forecast 15

Recent analysis 19

Politics 19

Economy 21

International assumptions summary 15

Forecast summary 18

Gross domestic product 18

Consumer price inflation 18

中国科学技术信息研究所