The president, Joseph Kabila, and his allies will maintain their domination over formal politics, but tensions with the opposition will rise in the run-up to the November 2016 elections. Violent confrontations are likely.
The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the fiscal deficit to widen gradually, reaching 2.3% of GDP in 2016, as modest gains in revenue are undermined by growing spending pressure in the run-up to the 2016 polls.
Annual real GDP growth will slow to 7.4% in 2016, from nearly 9% in 2014, as the impact of rising mining and agricultural output is partly offset by inadequate power supply and as political uncertainties weigh on investment.

Summary 7

Basic data 8

Political structure 9

Economic structure 10

Annual indicators 10

Quarterly indicators 11

Outlook for 2015-16 12

Political outlook 12

Democracy index 14

Economic policy outlook 15

Economic forecast 16

Recent analysis 20

Politics 20

Economy 31

International assumptions summary 16

Forecast summary 19

Gross domestic product 19

Consumer price inflation 19

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