The dissolution of parliament in January will worsen tensions between the president, Michel Martelly, and the opposition, and will further complicate efforts to hold legislative and presidential elections in 2015.
Barring supply-side shocks, year-end inflation will ease in 2015, to 4.2%, as domestic food supplies improve and lower forecast global oil prices help to tame price pressures. It will rise slightly, to 4.5%, by end-2016.
The current-account deficit will narrow but stay very large in 2015-16, at an average of 9.4% of GDP, as import spending far exceeds export income. It will be covered mainly by inflows from foreign grants and bilateral loans.

Summary 7

Basic data 8

Political structure 9

Economic structure 10

Annual indicators 10

Quarterly indicators 11

Comparative economic indicators 12

Outlook for 2015-16 13

Political outlook 13

Democracy index 14

Economic policy outlook 16

Economic forecast 17

International assumptions summary 17

Forecast summary 19

Gross domestic product 20

Consumer price inflation 20

Politics 21

Economy 29

中国科学技术信息研究所