Prospects for major political liberalisation are mixed. Even if the opposition wins the 2015 election-as The Economist Intelligence Unit expects it to if the polls are free and fair-the military will remain politically powerful.
We forecast that real GDP growth will quicken to an annual average of 7.3% in fiscal years 2015/16-2019/20 (April-March), from an estimated 64% in 2014/15. Greater inflows of foreign investment will support economic expansion.
'Rapid import growth and a persistent income deficit will outweigh the effects of strong export gains in 2015-19, causing the current-account deficit to widen from the equivalent of 7.1% of GDP in 2014 to 10% in 2019.

Highlights 7

Political outlook 8

Democracy index 10

Economic policy outlook 11

Economic forecast 13

Annual data and forecast 16

Quarterly data 17

Monthly data 18

Annual trends charts 19

Monthly trends charts 20

Comparative economic indicators 21

Basic data 22

Political structure 23

Politics 24

Economy 45

中国科学技术信息研究所