Attempts to alter the constitution to permit the president, Blaise Compaore, to run for a fifth term in 2015 will weigh on political stability. Widespread popular protests are likely and violent confrontations cannot be ruled out.
We expect the fiscal deficit to widen to 4.1% of GDP in 2015, from 3.7% of GDP in 2014, as spending increases in the run-up to the November election. Easing current spending pressure will bring down the deficit slightly in 2016.
We forecast that real GDP growth will slow to 6.4% in 2015 as the election causes a dip in investment before accelerating to 6.9% 2016 on the back of rising mining and cotton output and increasing public investment.

Summary 7

Basic data 8

Political structure 9

Economic structure 10

Annual indicators 10

Quarterly indicators 11

Comparative economic indicators 12

Outlook for 2015-16 13

Political outlook 13

Economic policy outlook 14

Economic forecast 16

Recent analysis 19

Politics 19

Economy 30

International assumptions summary 16

Forecast summary 18

Exchange rate 11

Foreign reserves 11

Gross domestic product 18

Consumer price inflation 18

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