The focus of this report is on current market events and the medium term (2014-2019) while Appendix A provides a long term outlook for supply, demand and prices to 2039. CRU has identified a number of issues which have characterised the market and will influence the outlook, namely:
Tight supply but prices fail to boom as demand reacts. Maintenance outages in Asia have certainly reduced acid supply in early 2015 but demand from major importers (China, Chile, Morocco) has fallen back and as a result prices have only moderately firmed. Into H2 2016, supply is expected to return in Asia but new closures in Europe in Q3 2015 will prevent oversupply.
Smelter acid capacity growth drives changes to international trade flows. With new export orientated capacity forecast in the Philippines, Iran and Indonesia there is forecast to be a need for new trade routes to be established. Environmental upgrades in Chile and USA are also expected to limit import requirements from the copper sector from 2018. Supply growth in Mexico, Namibia and Cuba also will also trigger a shift in traded acid volumes.
Major importers decline volumes with few replacing lost demand. The commissioning of the Petrokimia Gresik phosphoric acid expansion is a standout example of a major acid consumer choosing to import acid over constructing sulphur-burnt supply. New sulphur-burners in Namibia, India and Cuba are forecast to reduce import demand from some of the major consuming markets of 2014. With new exportable capacity being added the loss of major buyers is projected increase competition for business in the traded market.
Price declines from 2016 as sulphur values fall and supply grows. With increased acid supply and lower sulphur prices, CRU forecast a declining trend for sulphuric acid prices. In Chile, a reduced demand from the off-shore market is forecast to prevent prices climbing. Brazil and US price points will find increased volumes of European exports as Cuba, Namibia and Morocco reduced demand which if forecast further pressure prices lower.

Executive Summary 1

Chapter 1 - Demand 9

1.1 Global Sulphuric Acid Consumption 9

      1.1.1 Summary 9

      1.1.2 Global Overview 10

1.2 Phosphoric Acid 11

      1.2.1 Regional Market Forecast 13

1.3 Ammonium Sulphate 14

      1.3.1 Regional Market Forecasts 15

1.4 SSP 17

      1.4.1 Regional Market Forecasts 17

1.5 Copper SX-EW 19

      1.5.1 Regional Market Forecasts 21

1.6 Nickel 23

      1.6.1 Regional Market Forecasts 23

1.7 Uranium 24

      1.7.1 Regional Market Forecasts 25

1.8 Industrial Demand 25

      1.8.1 North America 25

      1.8.2 Europe 26

      1.8.3 Asia 26

Chapter 2 - Supply 27

2.1 Global Sulphuric Acid supply 27

      2.1.1 Summary 27

      2.1.2 Global overview 28

2.2 Sulphur-burnt Acid 30

      2.2.1 Regional Market Forecasts 32

2.3 Smelter Acid 33

      2.3.1 Regional Market Forecasts 36

2.4 Pyrites 38

2.5 Other Sources of Sulphuric Acid 39

Chapter 3 - Trade, Balance and Prices 41

3.1 Trade 41

      3.1.1 Introduction 41

      3.1.2 Recent developments: Imports 42

      3.1.3 Recent developments: Exports 46

3.2 Trade Outlook 47

      3.2.1 Introduction 47

      3.2.2 Global Trade Outlook 47

      3.2.3 Regional Trade Forecast 48

3.3 Prices 53

      3.3.1 Recent Price Developments 53

      3.3.2 Price Outlook to 2019 55

      3.3.3 Sulphuric Acid Price Outlook 55

Appendix A - The Long Term Outlook for the Sulphuric Acid Market 59

A.1 Introduction 60

A.2 Long term demand for sulphuric acid 61

A. 3 Long Term Outlook for Supply 64

A.4 Sulphur-burnt sulphuric acid gap analysis 66

A.5 CRU's LRMC methodology 67

A.6 Long Term trend price for sulphuric Acid 68

A.7 Calculating the LRMC for sulphuric acid 70

A.8 Escalation and Forecast of the LRMC 74

A.9 Long-run marginal cost forecast, 2013-2039 76

A. 10 Risks to the Outlook 79

Appendix B - Industrial and economic outlook, 2014-2019 81

B.1 Overview 81

B.2 Exchange rates 86

B.3 Macroeconomic outlook 88

B.4 Scenario 96

Appendix C - Sulphuric Acid Consumption by Country and Sector,

2012-2019 107

Appendix D - Sulphuric Acid Production by Country and Sector,

2012-2019 119

Appendix E - World and Regional Sulphuric Acid Balance,

2012-2019 127

Appendix F - Sulphuric Acid Imports, 2012-2019 135

Appendix G - Sulphuric Acid Exports, 2012-2019 139

Appendix H - Sulphuric Acid Trade, 2013 143

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