Political uncertainty will remain high throughout most of the forecast period as the divide between Islamist and nationalist factions deepens, increasing the risk of a full-blown civil war.
Crude production will remain well below the 2010 (pre-conflict) capacity of 1.55m barrels/day as western Libya, which produces around one-third of the country's output, is at risk of felling under the full control of Islamist militias.

Highlights 7

Political outlook 8

Economic policy outlook 9

Economic forecast 11

Annual data and forecast 14

Quarterly data 15

Monthly data 16

Annual trends charts 17

Monthly trends charts 18

Comparative economic indicators 19

Basic data 20

Political structure 21

Politics 22

Economy 42

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