The government is expected to struggle on in power, but with the economy in free-fall the opposition is likely to make gains at upcoming legislative elections.
Lower oil prices raise the risk of a default on external debt commitments. Although our baseline forecast is that the government will avoid a default, the external accounts will remain weak and a serious cause for concern.
Even though a large share of expenditure will continue to be channelled off-budget, the official public finances will still record a huge deficit (17% of GDP in 2015, falling to 8.4% of GDP by 2019), funded by ever-increasing debt.

Highlights 7

Political outlook 8

Democracy index 9

Economic policy outlook 11

Economic forecast 12

Annual data and forecast 16

Quarterly data 17

Monthly data 18

Annual trends charts 19

Monthly trends charts 20

Comparative economic indicators 21

Basic data 22

Political structure 23

Politics 24

Economy 39

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