Political stability will be fragile in the near term as the interim authorities struggle to contend with public demands for reform, resistance from the former regime and growing tensions in the run-up to the October 2015 polls.
The current-account deficit will narrow to 5.1% of GDP in 2015 as oil prices and import demand fell. The deficit will widen to 5.5% of GDP in 2016 as commodity prices rise and higher investment sucks in capital imports.

Summary 7

Basic data 8

Political structure 9

Economic structure 10

Annual indicators 10

Quarterly indicators 11

Comparative economic indicators 12

Outlook for 2015-16 13

Political outlook 13

Democracy index 14

Economic policy outlook 16

Economic forecast 17

Recent analysis 21

Politics 21

Economy 31

International assumptions summary 17

Forecast summary 19

Exchange rate 11

Foreign reserves 11

Gross domestic product 20

Consumer price inflation 20

中国科学技术信息研究所