Although the government's diplomatic and military position has been assisted by the US and its allies' air strikes against the Islamic State (IS), in reality the extreme jihadi group's rise is only likely to accelerate Syria's fragmentation.
We forecast that the economy will have bottomed out by end-2014 as the economy and business adjust to the realities of the military stalemate. However, even by 2019 real GDP will still be some 30% smaller than in 2010.
Having peaked at 89.6% in 2013, inflation will ease to an average of 22.5% in 2014-16, aided by a helpful base effect. However, persistent shortages and the continued weakening of the pound will keep inflation elevated thereafter.

Highlights 7

Political outlook 8

Economic policy outlook 10

Economic forecast 11

Annual data and forecast 14

Quarterly data 15

Monthly data 16

Annual trends charts 17

Monthly trends charts 18

Comparative economic indicators 19

Basic data 20

Political structure 21

Politics 22

Economy 45

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