The presence of militias in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo and weak government control there will continue to pose a threat to Rwanda's security.
Inflation is forecast to fell to 1.3% in 2015 owing to lower food and oil prices, before picking up to 2.2% in 2016 as high domestic demand, rising world commodity prices, and a weakening currency boost inflationary pressures.
We expect the current-account deficit to narrow as a share of GDP from an estimated 9.2% in 2014 to 6.9% in 2015 as world commodity prices fall, before -widening to 8.8% in 2016 as food and oil prices recover.

Summary 7

Basic data 8

Political structure 9

Economic structure 10

Annual indicators 10

Quarterly indicators 11

Comparative economic indicators 12

Outlook for 2015-16 13

Political outlook 13

Democracy index 14

Economic policy outlook 16

Economic forecast 17

Recent analysis 21

Politics 21

Economy 22

International assumptions summary 17

Forecast summary 19

Exchange rate 11

Foreign reserves 11

Gross domestic product 20

Consumer price inflation 20

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