The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the governing coalition of the PSD and the CDS-PP to see out its full term to 2015. The government will be buoyed by its exit from the three-year EU/IMF bail-out agreement.
After an estimated budget deficit of 4.8% of GDP in 2014 (larger than the 4% target for the year that Portugal agreed with its international creditors), we expect the deficit to narrow to 2.3% of GDP by the end of the forecast period.
We forecast real GDP growth of 0.9% in 2015. This follows an estimated 0.6% expansion in 2014 and a 1.4% fall in 2013. The pace of economic expansion is then expected to accelerate gradually in 2016-19, averaging 1.6% per year.

Highlights 7

Political outlook 8

Economic policy outlook 9

Economic forecast 11

Annual data and forecast 15

Quarterly data 16

Monthly data 17

Annual trends charts 19

Quarterly trends charts 20

Monthly trends charts 21

Comparative economic indicators 22

Basic data 23

Political structure 24

Politics 25

Economy 39

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