The president, Idriss Deby, who has been at the helm since 1990 and has consolidated his control over the political system, will remain in power throughout the forecast period, easily securing re-election in 2016.
Although weak oil prices will weigh on public investment, GDP growth will remain robust, at 5.3% a year in 2015-16, as new oil wells come on stream.
The current-account deficit will widen from an estimated 9.9% of GDP in 2014 to 15.9% of GDP in 2015, as plunging oil prices will undermine exports. It will narrow to 12.2% of GDP in 2016, in tandem with recovering prices.

Summary 7

Basic data 8

Political structure 9

Economic structure 10

Annual indicators 10

Quarterly indicators 11

Comparative economic indicators 12

Outlook for 2015-16 13

Political outlook 13

Democracy index 14

Economic policy outlook 16

Economic forecast 17

Recent analysis 21

Politics 21

Economy 28

International assumptions summary 17

Forecast summary 19

Foreign trade 11

Foreign reserves 11

Gross domestic product 20

Consumer price inflation 20

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